Ace in the Hole
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 38 (12 on the archive and 26 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 16
Defender wins (German): 21
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (American): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1002 | 960 | 56% | 2026-03-18 | Won |
| 878 | 1103 | 21% | 2025-09-20 | Lost |
| 1344 | 1186 | 71% | 2024-06-15 | Won |
| 756 | 986 | 21% | 2022-03-14 | Lost |
| 1157 | 1063 | 63% | 2022-02-17 | Won |
| 932 | 1073 | 31% | 2022-01-15 | Lost |
| 1225 | 979 | 80% | 2021-03-05 | Won |
| 985 | 1114 | 32% | 2020-10-07 | Lost |
| 1003 | 878 | 67% | 2020-04-16 | Lost |
| 1058 | 975 | 62% | 2017-12-19 | Won |
| 1116 | 1118 | 50% | 2017-04-28 | Lost |
| 970 | 1116 | 30% | 2016-09-26 | Lost |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1035.5 vs 1045.9 has a 48.5% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).