The Marco Polo Bridge Incident
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 114 (36 on the archive and 78 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 53
Defender wins (Chinese): 61
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1081 | 1081 | 50% | 2025-09-11 | Won |
| 1003 | 979 | 53% | 2023-08-22 | Won |
| 1003 | 979 | 53% | 2023-08-19 | Won |
| 979 | 1003 | 47% | 2023-08-17 | Won |
| 1016 | 1017 | 50% | 2023-04-05 | Lost |
| 954 | 974 | 47% | 2023-01-17 | Lost |
| 1131 | 974 | 71% | 2020-08-13 | Won |
| 998 | 1038 | 44% | 2019-12-31 | Lost |
| 1158 | 1149 | 51% | 2018-06-22 | Lost |
| 1227 | 1170 | 58% | 2017-03-20 | Lost |
| 1263 | 1337 | 40% | 2016-06-09 | Lost |
| 1220 | 1208 | 52% | 2016-02-01 | Won |
| 1430 | 1234 | 76% | 2015-01-21 | Won |
| 1061 | 1052 | 51% | 2014-06-28 | Lost |
| 1121 | 1121 | 50% | 2012-05-10 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2012-03-18 | Lost |
| 1220 | 1189 | 54% | 2011-07-31 | Won |
| 960 | 921 | 56% | 2011-07-30 | Lost |
| 940 | 936 | 51% | 2011-06-03 | Won |
| 1052 | 1133 | 39% | 2011-02-12 | Lost |
| 936 | 1171 | 21% | 2011-02-03 | Lost |
| 936 | 982 | 43% | 2011-01-29 | Lost |
| 1080 | 1313 | 21% | 2010-10-01 | Lost |
| 969 | 934 | 55% | 2010-09-19 | Won |
| 1087 | 967 | 67% | 2010-07-25 | Won |
| 1150 | 1263 | 34% | 2010-05-28 | Lost |
| 934 | 969 | 45% | 2010-01-01 | Lost |
| 1075 | 1175 | 36% | 2009-09-25 | Lost |
| 1158 | 1000 | 71% | 2009-09-23 | Won |
| 1158 | 1075 | 62% | 2009-05-23 | Lost |
| 1018 | 1215 | 24% | 2008-10-01 | Lost |
| 983 | 1159 | 27% | 2008-01-26 | Lost |
| 982 | 914 | 60% | 2007-12-02 | Won |
| 1075 | 1056 | 53% | 2007-10-01 | Won |
| 1141 | 1153 | 48% | 2007-09-30 | Won |
| 1036 | 1119 | 38% | | Lost |
Attacking (16 wins) average ELOs: 1072.9 vs 1084.7 has a 48.3% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).