The Marco Polo Bridge Incident
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 30
Attacker wins (Japanese): 13
Defender wins (Chinese): 17
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 941 | 1053 | 34% | 2023-08-22 | Won |
| 941 | 1053 | 34% | 2023-08-19 | Won |
| 1053 | 941 | 66% | 2023-08-17 | Won |
| 1120 | 1084 | 55% | 2023-04-05 | Lost |
| 963 | 1008 | 44% | 2023-01-17 | Lost |
| 1195 | 1008 | 75% | 2020-08-13 | Won |
| 1010 | 1038 | 46% | 2019-12-31 | Lost |
| 1158 | 1149 | 51% | 2018-06-22 | Lost |
| 1049 | 1208 | 29% | 2017-03-20 | Lost |
| 1266 | 1143 | 67% | 2016-02-01 | Won |
| 1405 | 1302 | 64% | 2015-01-21 | Won |
| 1061 | 1061 | 50% | 2014-06-28 | Lost |
| 1117 | 1136 | 47% | 2012-05-10 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2012-03-18 | Lost |
| 1266 | 1159 | 65% | 2011-07-31 | Won |
| 1008 | 921 | 62% | 2011-07-30 | Lost |
| 942 | 938 | 51% | 2011-06-03 | Won |
| 1061 | 1132 | 40% | 2011-02-12 | Lost |
| 938 | 1131 | 25% | 2011-02-03 | Lost |
| 938 | 982 | 44% | 2011-01-29 | Lost |
| 1043 | 1254 | 23% | 2010-10-01 | Lost |
| 1050 | 929 | 67% | 2010-09-19 | Won |
| 1044 | 1080 | 45% | 2010-07-25 | Won |
| 929 | 1050 | 33% | 2010-01-01 | Lost |
| 1168 | 982 | 74% | 2009-09-23 | Won |
| 1168 | 975 | 75% | 2009-05-23 | Lost |
| 1012 | 1089 | 39% | 2008-10-01 | Lost |
| 982 | 1169 | 25% | 2008-01-26 | Lost |
| 986 | 914 | 60% | 2007-12-02 | Won |
| 1105 | 1118 | 48% | | Lost |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1066.9 vs 1069.8 has a 49.58% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).