The Marco Polo Bridge Incident
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 114 (36 on the archive and 78 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 53
Defender wins (Chinese): 61
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1120 | 1000 | 67% | 2025-09-11 | | Won |
| 967 | 992 | 46% | 2023-08-22 | | Won |
| 967 | 992 | 46% | 2023-08-19 | | Won |
| 992 | 967 | 54% | 2023-08-17 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1098 | 36% | 2023-04-05 | | Lost |
| 951 | 1000 | 43% | 2023-01-17 | | Lost |
| 1064 | 1000 | 59% | 2020-08-13 | | Won |
| 1020 | 1038 | 47% | 2019-12-31 | | Lost |
| 1159 | 1000 | 71% | 2018-06-22 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1172 | 27% | 2017-03-20 | | Lost |
| 1242 | 1000 | 80% | 2016-06-09 | | Lost |
| 1185 | 1204 | 47% | 2016-02-01 | | Won |
| 1435 | 1219 | 78% | 2015-01-21 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1084 | 38% | 2014-06-28 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1136 | 31% | 2012-05-10 | | Won |
| 1088 | 1000 | 62% | 2012-03-18 | | Lost |
| 1185 | 1141 | 56% | 2011-07-31 | | Won |
| 1097 | 921 | 73% | 2011-07-30 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 936 | 59% | 2011-06-03 | | Won |
| 1084 | 1134 | 43% | 2011-02-12 | | Lost |
| 936 | 1169 | 21% | 2011-02-03 | | Lost |
| 936 | 982 | 43% | 2011-01-29 | | Lost |
| 1058 | 1310 | 19% | 2010-10-01 | | Lost |
| 1011 | 907 | 65% | 2010-09-19 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1007 | 49% | 2010-07-25 | | Won |
| 1150 | 1242 | 37% | 2010-05-28 | | Lost |
| 907 | 1011 | 35% | 2010-01-01 | | Lost |
| 1040 | 1215 | 27% | 2009-09-25 | | Lost |
| 1131 | 1000 | 68% | 2009-09-23 | | Won |
| 1131 | 1040 | 63% | 2009-05-23 | | Lost |
| 1060 | 1000 | 59% | 2008-10-01 | | Lost |
| 983 | 1185 | 24% | 2008-01-26 | | Lost |
| 982 | 1000 | 47% | 2007-12-02 | | Won |
| 1040 | 1000 | 56% | 2007-10-01 | | Won |
| 1141 | 1000 | 69% | 2007-09-30 | | Won |
| 1086 | 1000 | 62% | | | Lost |
Attacking (16 wins) average ELOs: 1059.7 vs 1058.4 has a 50.18% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).