The Marco Polo Bridge Incident
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 26
Attacker wins (Japanese): 10
Defender wins (Chinese): 16
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1131 | 1131 | 50% | 2023-04-05 | Lost |
| 964 | 999 | 45% | 2023-01-17 | Lost |
| 1191 | 999 | 75% | 2020-08-13 | Won |
| 994 | 990 | 51% | 2019-12-31 | Lost |
| 1158 | 1149 | 51% | 2018-06-22 | Lost |
| 1030 | 1126 | 37% | 2017-03-20 | Lost |
| 1259 | 1151 | 65% | 2016-02-01 | Won |
| 1400 | 1310 | 63% | 2015-01-21 | Won |
| 1062 | 1098 | 45% | 2014-06-28 | Lost |
| 1116 | 1130 | 48% | 2012-05-10 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2012-03-18 | Lost |
| 1259 | 1133 | 67% | 2011-07-31 | Won |
| 998 | 936 | 59% | 2011-07-30 | Lost |
| 942 | 938 | 51% | 2011-06-03 | Won |
| 1098 | 1133 | 45% | 2011-02-12 | Lost |
| 938 | 1131 | 25% | 2011-02-03 | Lost |
| 938 | 982 | 44% | 2011-01-29 | Lost |
| 1084 | 931 | 71% | 2010-09-19 | Won |
| 1043 | 1047 | 49% | 2010-07-25 | Won |
| 931 | 1084 | 29% | 2010-01-01 | Lost |
| 1150 | 982 | 72% | 2009-09-23 | Won |
| 1150 | 978 | 73% | 2009-05-23 | Lost |
| 1069 | 958 | 65% | 2008-10-01 | Lost |
| 983 | 1106 | 33% | 2008-01-26 | Lost |
| 986 | 913 | 60% | 2007-12-02 | Won |
| 1164 | 1118 | 57% | | Lost |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1081.8 vs 1059.3 has a 53.23% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).