Breakthrough in the Arctic
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 72 (22 on the archive and 50 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 36
Defender wins (German): 32
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 2
Attacker wins (Russian): 1
Defender wins (German): 1
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Russian): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1055 | 1035 | 53% | 2025-03-28 | Won |
| 1105 | 1144 | 44% | 2024-08-10 | Lost |
| 1051 | 991 | 59% | 2024-05-11 | Won |
| 1189 | 898 | 84% | 2024-03-04 | Lost |
| 1010 | 1100 | 37% | 2024-03-02 | Won |
| 1075 | 1131 | 42% | 2024-03-01 | Won |
| 1107 | 1137 | 46% | 2024-01-12 | Lost |
| 935 | 1010 | 39% | 2023-12-29 | Lost |
| 969 | 1142 | 27% | 2023-10-22 | Lost |
| 1169 | 1004 | 72% | 2023-07-28 | Won |
| 1168 | 1264 | 37% | 2023-07-28 | Lost |
| 1252 | 924 | 87% | 2023-07-08 | Won |
| 1121 | 1313 | 25% | 2023-06-10 | Tied |
| 948 | 1082 | 32% | 2023-03-22 | Won |
| 1060 | 999 | 59% | 2023-03-20 | Won |
| 1011 | 1313 | 15% | 2023-03-17 | Lost |
| 1413 | 1030 | 90% | 2023-03-07 | Won |
| 1096 | 971 | 67% | 2023-03-02 | Won |
| 749 | 1252 | 5% | 2023-02-22 | Lost |
| 1189 | 1004 | 74% | 2023-02-16 | Lost |
| 1252 | 749 | 95% | 2023-02-13 | Won |
| 1313 | 1111 | 76% | 2023-01-11 | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1101.7 vs 1072.9 has a 54.13% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).