Breakthrough in the Arctic
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 72 (22 on the archive and 50 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 36
Defender wins (German): 32
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 2
Attacker wins (Russian): 1
Defender wins (German): 1
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Russian): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1042 | 1036 | 51% | 2025-03-28 | Won |
| 1169 | 1142 | 54% | 2024-08-10 | Lost |
| 1018 | 985 | 55% | 2024-05-11 | Won |
| 1183 | 897 | 84% | 2024-03-04 | Lost |
| 1014 | 1108 | 37% | 2024-03-02 | Won |
| 1050 | 1131 | 39% | 2024-03-01 | Won |
| 1110 | 1138 | 46% | 2024-01-12 | Lost |
| 924 | 1009 | 38% | 2023-12-29 | Lost |
| 969 | 1130 | 28% | 2023-10-22 | Lost |
| 1166 | 992 | 73% | 2023-07-28 | Won |
| 1177 | 1266 | 37% | 2023-07-28 | Lost |
| 1225 | 921 | 85% | 2023-07-08 | Won |
| 1117 | 1309 | 25% | 2023-06-10 | Tied |
| 984 | 1018 | 45% | 2023-03-22 | Won |
| 1137 | 975 | 72% | 2023-03-20 | Won |
| 1025 | 1309 | 16% | 2023-03-17 | Lost |
| 1405 | 1028 | 90% | 2023-03-07 | Won |
| 1097 | 938 | 71% | 2023-03-02 | Won |
| 753 | 1225 | 6% | 2023-02-22 | Lost |
| 1183 | 984 | 76% | 2023-02-16 | Lost |
| 1225 | 753 | 94% | 2023-02-13 | Won |
| 1309 | 1096 | 77% | 2023-01-11 | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1103.7 vs 1063.2 has a 55.81% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).