Breakthrough in the Arctic
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 69 (22 on the archive and 47 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 35
Defender wins (German): 30
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 2
Attacker wins (Russian): 1
Defender wins (German): 1
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Russian): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1106 | 1074 | 55% | 2024-08-10 | Lost |
| 983 | 985 | 50% | 2024-05-11 | Won |
| 1150 | 891 | 82% | 2024-03-04 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1110 | 36% | 2024-03-02 | Won |
| 1084 | 1129 | 44% | 2024-03-01 | Won |
| 1100 | 1119 | 47% | 2024-01-12 | Lost |
| 923 | 936 | 48% | 2023-12-29 | Lost |
| 1150 | 999 | 70% | 2023-12-23 | Won |
| 982 | 1158 | 27% | 2023-10-22 | Lost |
| 1131 | 998 | 68% | 2023-07-28 | Won |
| 1184 | 1259 | 39% | 2023-07-28 | Lost |
| 1250 | 926 | 87% | 2023-07-08 | Won |
| 1115 | 1310 | 25% | 2023-06-10 | Tied |
| 1018 | 978 | 56% | 2023-03-22 | Won |
| 1074 | 970 | 65% | 2023-03-20 | Won |
| 1025 | 1310 | 16% | 2023-03-17 | Lost |
| 1400 | 996 | 91% | 2023-03-07 | Won |
| 1094 | 1074 | 53% | 2023-03-02 | Won |
| 769 | 1250 | 6% | 2023-02-22 | Lost |
| 1150 | 999 | 70% | 2023-02-16 | Lost |
| 1250 | 769 | 94% | 2023-02-13 | Won |
| 1310 | 1082 | 79% | 2023-01-11 | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1102.6 vs 1060.1 has a 56.09% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).