As Luck Would Have It
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 92 (26 on the archive and 66 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 46
Defender wins (British): 45
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 976 | 947 | 54% | 2025-06-20 | Lost |
| 1004 | 867 | 69% | 2025-01-03 | Lost |
| 976 | 1055 | 39% | 2024-05-17 | Won |
| 1031 | 1204 | 27% | 2024-05-09 | Lost |
| 1000 | 852 | 70% | 2022-04-02 | Won |
| 1043 | 927 | 66% | 2021-07-10 | Won |
| 1133 | 969 | 72% | 2021-03-03 | Won |
| 1084 | 1025 | 58% | 2020-07-27 | Won |
| 1087 | 1087 | 50% | 2020-07-08 | Won |
| 885 | 914 | 46% | 2020-06-18 | Won |
| 1120 | 1254 | 32% | 2020-04-24 | Lost |
| 1059 | 1098 | 44% | 2020-02-27 | Won |
| 862 | 1060 | 24% | 2019-09-05 | Lost |
| 993 | 947 | 57% | 2019-08-17 | Lost |
| 1004 | 973 | 54% | 2019-07-28 | Won |
| 1004 | 973 | 54% | 2019-07-28 | Won |
| 877 | 1004 | 32% | 2019-07-27 | Tied |
| 1313 | 1111 | 76% | 2019-04-18 | Lost |
| 1189 | 1004 | 74% | 2019-04-07 | Lost |
| 948 | 1082 | 32% | 2019-03-07 | Won |
| 1120 | 1075 | 56% | 2019-02-28 | Lost |
| 1004 | 1002 | 50% | 2019-02-23 | Won |
| 1211 | 1151 | 59% | 2019-01-18 | Lost |
| 1211 | 1151 | 59% | 2019-01-18 | Lost |
| 1031 | 1079 | 43% | | Lost |
| 882 | 1079 | 24% | | Lost |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1040.3 vs 1034.2 has a 50.87% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).