Insurrection at Cividale
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 44 (13 on the archive and 31 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Italian): 21
Defender wins (German (SS)): 22
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1097 | 1117 | 47% | 2026-07-26 | | Won |
| 1000 | 949 | 57% | 2025-10-23 | | Lost |
| 1151 | 1041 | 65% | 2024-04-11 | | Tied |
| 1000 | 1007 | 49% | 2023-08-25 | | Lost |
| 961 | 1143 | 26% | 2022-10-27 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 983 | 52% | 2022-03-01 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1060 | 41% | 2021-05-15 | | Lost |
| 916 | 980 | 41% | 2021-01-26 | | Lost |
| 1205 | 1141 | 59% | 2020-07-25 | | Won |
| 1131 | 1000 | 68% | 2020-02-18 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1226 | 21% | 2019-06-28 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1002 | 50% | 2019-05-13 | | Won |
| 1219 | 1171 | 57% | 2019-02-13 | | Lost |
Attacking (3 wins) average ELOs: 1052.3 vs 1063.1 has a 48.45% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).