Insurrection at Cividale
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 40 (11 on the archive and 29 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Italian): 18
Defender wins (German (SS)): 21
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1156 | 1068 | 62% | 2024-04-11 | Tied |
| 1041 | 1133 | 37% | 2023-08-25 | Lost |
| 938 | 1193 | 19% | 2022-10-27 | Lost |
| 953 | 982 | 46% | 2022-03-01 | Lost |
| 1120 | 1059 | 59% | 2021-05-15 | Lost |
| 899 | 896 | 50% | 2021-01-26 | Lost |
| 1170 | 1154 | 52% | 2020-07-25 | Won |
| 1189 | 1004 | 74% | 2020-02-18 | Lost |
| 927 | 1223 | 15% | 2019-06-28 | Lost |
| 1004 | 1023 | 47% | 2019-05-13 | Won |
| 1313 | 1111 | 76% | 2019-02-13 | Lost |
Attacking (2 wins) average ELOs: 1064.5 vs 1076.9 has a 48.22% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).