First Timers
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 124 (45 on the archive and 79 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 59
Defender wins (German): 64
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 983 | 976 | 51% | 2025-06-20 | Won |
| 864 | 935 | 40% | 2025-01-16 | Lost |
| 969 | 1117 | 30% | 2024-10-11 | Lost |
| 864 | 935 | 40% | 2023-01-12 | Lost |
| 1082 | 1022 | 59% | 2022-06-22 | Won |
| 1413 | 1030 | 90% | 2022-06-10 | Won |
| 914 | 866 | 57% | 2022-05-25 | Lost |
| 966 | 1120 | 29% | 2022-05-07 | Won |
| 1036 | 1007 | 54% | 2021-08-25 | Won |
| 1067 | 975 | 63% | 2021-05-01 | Won |
| 996 | 958 | 55% | 2021-02-13 | Won |
| 1044 | 1163 | 34% | 2020-12-23 | Lost |
| 1154 | 1075 | 61% | 2020-10-30 | Won |
| 1063 | 1150 | 38% | 2020-10-28 | Won |
| 976 | 1108 | 32% | 2020-08-18 | Lost |
| 982 | 1031 | 43% | 2020-04-13 | Lost |
| 1036 | 896 | 69% | 2020-03-29 | Won |
| 1125 | 1048 | 61% | 2019-10-10 | Won |
| 1040 | 1112 | 40% | 2019-10-10 | Won |
| 1060 | 1109 | 43% | 2019-08-28 | Lost |
| 1193 | 842 | 88% | 2019-03-07 | Won |
| 1190 | 1105 | 62% | 2019-01-28 | Won |
| 1227 | 1220 | 51% | 2019-01-18 | Lost |
| 985 | 892 | 63% | 2019-01-12 | Won |
| 1078 | 1059 | 53% | 2019-01-06 | Won |
| 900 | 998 | 36% | 2018-12-29 | Won |
| 1262 | 1413 | 30% | 2018-12-27 | Lost |
| 877 | 1099 | 22% | 2018-12-24 | Lost |
| 1108 | 1170 | 41% | 2018-12-21 | Lost |
| 1050 | 1093 | 44% | 2018-12-08 | Tied |
| 911 | 1055 | 30% | 2018-12-02 | Lost |
| 848 | 929 | 39% | 2018-12-01 | Lost |
| 1010 | 1004 | 51% | 2018-11-18 | Lost |
| 1138 | 1132 | 51% | 2018-11-10 | Lost |
| 1189 | 1004 | 74% | 2018-11-10 | Won |
| 1082 | 948 | 68% | 2018-10-21 | Lost |
| 1151 | 858 | 84% | 2018-10-20 | Won |
| 1313 | 1111 | 76% | 2018-10-17 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1082 | 47% | 2018-10-12 | Won |
| 1133 | 1043 | 63% | 2018-10-06 | Won |
| 1068 | 1040 | 54% | 2018-10-06 | Won |
| 1136 | 1223 | 38% | 2018-09-10 | Won |
| 787 | 1001 | 23% | 2018-09-08 | Lost |
| 870 | 1005 | 31% | 2018-09-01 | Lost |
| 1079 | 1079 | 50% | | Won |
Attacking (24 wins) average ELOs: 1050.6 vs 1045.3 has a 50.76% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).