First Timers
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 121 (43 on the archive and 78 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 57
Defender wins (German): 63
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 864 | 924 | 41% | 2025-01-16 | Lost |
| 984 | 1099 | 34% | 2024-10-11 | Lost |
| 864 | 924 | 41% | 2023-01-12 | Lost |
| 1084 | 1022 | 59% | 2022-06-22 | Won |
| 1405 | 1028 | 90% | 2022-06-10 | Won |
| 937 | 866 | 60% | 2022-05-25 | Lost |
| 956 | 1089 | 32% | 2021-08-25 | Won |
| 1067 | 964 | 64% | 2021-05-01 | Won |
| 996 | 958 | 55% | 2021-02-13 | Won |
| 1044 | 1163 | 34% | 2020-12-23 | Lost |
| 1159 | 1050 | 65% | 2020-10-30 | Won |
| 1062 | 1150 | 38% | 2020-10-28 | Won |
| 959 | 1126 | 28% | 2020-08-18 | Lost |
| 982 | 1031 | 43% | 2020-04-13 | Lost |
| 1034 | 901 | 68% | 2020-03-29 | Won |
| 1045 | 1107 | 41% | 2019-10-10 | Won |
| 1122 | 1010 | 66% | 2019-10-10 | Won |
| 1039 | 1114 | 39% | 2019-08-28 | Lost |
| 1213 | 842 | 89% | 2019-03-07 | Won |
| 1187 | 1169 | 53% | 2019-01-28 | Won |
| 1227 | 1219 | 51% | 2019-01-18 | Lost |
| 986 | 892 | 63% | 2019-01-12 | Won |
| 1079 | 1012 | 60% | 2019-01-06 | Won |
| 899 | 993 | 37% | 2018-12-29 | Won |
| 1262 | 1405 | 31% | 2018-12-27 | Lost |
| 878 | 1088 | 23% | 2018-12-24 | Lost |
| 1102 | 1143 | 44% | 2018-12-21 | Lost |
| 1050 | 1093 | 44% | 2018-12-08 | Tied |
| 911 | 1046 | 31% | 2018-12-02 | Lost |
| 872 | 929 | 42% | 2018-12-01 | Lost |
| 1009 | 958 | 57% | 2018-11-18 | Lost |
| 1137 | 1159 | 47% | 2018-11-10 | Lost |
| 1183 | 958 | 79% | 2018-11-10 | Won |
| 1002 | 1004 | 50% | 2018-10-21 | Lost |
| 1157 | 853 | 85% | 2018-10-20 | Won |
| 1309 | 1096 | 77% | 2018-10-17 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1084 | 46% | 2018-10-12 | Won |
| 1080 | 1039 | 56% | 2018-10-06 | Won |
| 1064 | 1045 | 53% | 2018-10-06 | Won |
| 1133 | 1223 | 37% | 2018-09-10 | Won |
| 794 | 1002 | 23% | 2018-09-08 | Lost |
| 873 | 1005 | 32% | 2018-09-01 | Lost |
| 1166 | 1105 | 59% | | Won |
Attacking (22 wins) average ELOs: 1052 vs 1043.9 has a 51.16% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).