First Timers
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 126 (46 on the archive and 80 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 69
Defender wins (German): 56
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 984 | 955 | 54% | 2025-10-25 | Won |
| 938 | 1004 | 41% | 2025-06-20 | Won |
| 843 | 944 | 36% | 2025-01-16 | Lost |
| 959 | 1127 | 28% | 2024-10-11 | Lost |
| 843 | 944 | 36% | 2023-01-12 | Lost |
| 1020 | 1038 | 47% | 2022-06-22 | Won |
| 1435 | 1017 | 92% | 2022-06-10 | Won |
| 928 | 866 | 59% | 2022-05-25 | Lost |
| 945 | 1132 | 25% | 2022-05-07 | Won |
| 1010 | 1032 | 47% | 2021-08-25 | Won |
| 1066 | 939 | 68% | 2021-05-01 | Won |
| 1028 | 958 | 60% | 2021-02-13 | Won |
| 1045 | 1164 | 34% | 2020-12-23 | Lost |
| 1153 | 1084 | 60% | 2020-10-30 | Won |
| 1078 | 1152 | 40% | 2020-10-28 | Won |
| 1002 | 1102 | 36% | 2020-08-18 | Lost |
| 982 | 1031 | 43% | 2020-04-13 | Lost |
| 1038 | 951 | 62% | 2020-03-29 | Won |
| 1116 | 1029 | 62% | 2019-10-10 | Won |
| 1056 | 1109 | 42% | 2019-10-10 | Won |
| 1146 | 1133 | 52% | 2019-08-28 | Lost |
| 1099 | 826 | 83% | 2019-03-07 | Won |
| 1197 | 1119 | 61% | 2019-01-28 | Won |
| 1233 | 1216 | 52% | 2019-01-18 | Lost |
| 985 | 881 | 65% | 2019-01-12 | Won |
| 1142 | 1077 | 59% | 2019-01-06 | Won |
| 1102 | 965 | 69% | 2018-12-29 | Won |
| 1266 | 1435 | 27% | 2018-12-27 | Lost |
| 876 | 1070 | 25% | 2018-12-24 | Lost |
| 1219 | 1179 | 56% | 2018-12-21 | Lost |
| 1037 | 1107 | 40% | 2018-12-08 | Tied |
| 911 | 1082 | 27% | 2018-12-02 | Lost |
| 940 | 929 | 52% | 2018-12-01 | Lost |
| 1051 | 945 | 65% | 2018-11-18 | Lost |
| 1138 | 1131 | 51% | 2018-11-10 | Lost |
| 1160 | 945 | 78% | 2018-11-10 | Won |
| 1000 | 1047 | 43% | 2018-10-21 | Lost |
| 1123 | 850 | 83% | 2018-10-20 | Won |
| 1219 | 1171 | 57% | 2018-10-17 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1020 | 55% | 2018-10-12 | Won |
| 1031 | 1043 | 48% | 2018-10-06 | Won |
| 1030 | 1056 | 46% | 2018-10-06 | Won |
| 1136 | 1226 | 37% | 2018-09-10 | Won |
| 755 | 1008 | 19% | 2018-09-08 | Lost |
| 992 | 1005 | 48% | 2018-09-01 | Lost |
| 1078 | 1078 | 50% | | Won |
Attacking (25 wins) average ELOs: 1052 vs 1046.1 has a 50.85% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).