Black Day in Hatten
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 154 (56 on the archive and 98 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 73
Defender wins (German): 81
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 938 | 979 | 44% | 2025-09-27 | Won |
| 845 | 967 | 33% | 2024-11-18 | Lost |
| 954 | 1080 | 33% | 2024-06-09 | Lost |
| 959 | 979 | 47% | 2024-02-28 | Lost |
| 969 | 1117 | 30% | 2024-01-20 | Lost |
| 1172 | 1172 | 50% | 2023-08-02 | Lost |
| 981 | 1050 | 40% | 2023-06-10 | Lost |
| 1173 | 1197 | 47% | 2023-01-23 | Lost |
| 935 | 948 | 48% | 2023-01-23 | Won |
| 967 | 845 | 67% | 2023-01-20 | Won |
| 1058 | 1046 | 52% | 2022-11-01 | Won |
| 949 | 1228 | 17% | 2022-09-25 | Lost |
| 865 | 919 | 42% | 2022-08-06 | Won |
| 1347 | 1423 | 39% | 2022-06-10 | Lost |
| 1136 | 968 | 72% | 2022-06-10 | Won |
| 1164 | 944 | 78% | 2022-03-23 | Won |
| 1081 | 1021 | 59% | 2021-12-05 | Lost |
| 1090 | 1090 | 50% | 2021-12-04 | Won |
| 991 | 1052 | 41% | 2021-10-16 | Won |
| 976 | 976 | 50% | 2021-10-13 | Won |
| 1076 | 979 | 64% | 2021-02-18 | Lost |
| 1035 | 1046 | 48% | 2021-02-01 | Won |
| 1044 | 1163 | 34% | 2020-12-02 | Lost |
| 1163 | 1102 | 59% | 2020-09-08 | Lost |
| 922 | 1079 | 29% | 2020-06-07 | Won |
| 924 | 983 | 42% | 2020-05-31 | Won |
| 1217 | 929 | 84% | 2020-04-13 | Won |
| 1041 | 1041 | 50% | 2019-11-03 | Won |
| 868 | 950 | 38% | 2019-10-22 | Won |
| 950 | 868 | 62% | 2019-10-16 | Lost |
| 1218 | 1055 | 72% | 2019-10-10 | Won |
| 1126 | 1117 | 51% | 2019-09-16 | Won |
| 1216 | 961 | 81% | 2019-04-24 | Won |
| 824 | 1198 | 10% | 2019-01-24 | Lost |
| 931 | 942 | 48% | 2018-12-30 | Won |
| 1231 | 1217 | 52% | 2018-12-23 | Lost |
| 1028 | 1174 | 30% | 2018-12-08 | Won |
| 985 | 980 | 51% | 2018-12-08 | Won |
| 1226 | 1008 | 78% | 2018-11-24 | Lost |
| 1243 | 979 | 82% | 2018-11-10 | Lost |
| 878 | 1103 | 21% | 2018-11-06 | Won |
| 959 | 1091 | 32% | 2018-11-06 | Won |
| 907 | 1123 | 22% | 2018-11-03 | Lost |
| 876 | 1058 | 26% | 2018-10-28 | Won |
| 876 | 1058 | 26% | 2018-10-28 | Won |
| 876 | 1058 | 26% | 2018-10-28 | Won |
| 1035 | 1058 | 47% | 2018-10-26 | Lost |
| 1123 | 1008 | 66% | 2018-10-20 | Won |
| 1157 | 1253 | 37% | 2018-10-04 | Lost |
| 851 | 1116 | 18% | 2018-09-26 | Lost |
| 846 | 875 | 46% | 2018-09-11 | Lost |
| 969 | 1138 | 27% | 2018-09-01 | Lost |
| 1143 | 1019 | 67% | 2018-09-01 | Lost |
| 1263 | 1338 | 39% | 2018-08-30 | Won |
| 1151 | 1026 | 67% | 2018-08-09 | Won |
| 1019 | 1018 | 50% | | Lost |
Attacking (30 wins) average ELOs: 1031.2 vs 1055.6 has a 46.5% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).