The Grist Mill
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 83 (21 on the archive and 62 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (North Korean): 41
Defender wins (American): 42
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1176 | 944 | 79% | 2026-07-05 | Won |
| 1056 | 1011 | 56% | 2025-01-24 | Won |
| 1347 | 1079 | 82% | 2024-10-08 | Lost |
| 1152 | 1136 | 52% | 2024-03-02 | Won |
| 1182 | 736 | 93% | 2020-06-02 | Won |
| 1092 | 1102 | 49% | 2020-03-12 | Won |
| 1005 | 992 | 52% | 2019-07-13 | Lost |
| 1148 | 1051 | 64% | 2019-05-30 | Lost |
| 1099 | 966 | 68% | 2019-01-08 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2018-11-11 | Won |
| 1227 | 1031 | 76% | 2018-10-06 | Won |
| 1123 | 969 | 71% | 2018-08-22 | Won |
| 951 | 1227 | 17% | 2018-06-30 | Lost |
| 1344 | 907 | 93% | 2018-06-29 | Lost |
| 1008 | 863 | 70% | 2018-04-29 | Lost |
| 1135 | 1060 | 61% | 2018-04-29 | Lost |
| 826 | 1099 | 17% | 2018-03-28 | Lost |
| 991 | 1120 | 32% | 2018-03-24 | Won |
| 1156 | 952 | 76% | 2018-02-24 | Lost |
| 1070 | 937 | 68% | 2018-01-12 | Lost |
| 951 | 947 | 51% | 2018-01-12 | Lost |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1101.3 vs 1010.3 has a 62.8% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).