The Grist Mill
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 80 (20 on the archive and 60 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (North Korean): 38
Defender wins (American): 42
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1055 | 1002 | 58% | 2025-01-24 | Won |
| 1342 | 1177 | 72% | 2024-10-08 | Lost |
| 1084 | 1136 | 43% | 2024-03-02 | Won |
| 1214 | 973 | 80% | 2023-05-06 | Lost |
| 1207 | 757 | 93% | 2020-06-02 | Won |
| 1092 | 1103 | 48% | 2020-03-12 | Won |
| 1005 | 975 | 54% | 2019-07-13 | Lost |
| 1148 | 1005 | 69% | 2019-05-30 | Lost |
| 1102 | 931 | 73% | 2019-01-08 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2018-11-11 | Won |
| 1176 | 1095 | 61% | 2018-10-06 | Won |
| 1164 | 970 | 75% | 2018-08-22 | Won |
| 951 | 1170 | 22% | 2018-06-30 | Lost |
| 1021 | 864 | 71% | 2018-04-29 | Lost |
| 1139 | 1054 | 62% | 2018-04-29 | Lost |
| 826 | 1102 | 17% | 2018-03-28 | Lost |
| 991 | 1123 | 32% | 2018-03-24 | Won |
| 1056 | 976 | 61% | 2018-02-24 | Lost |
| 1086 | 918 | 72% | 2018-01-12 | Lost |
| 967 | 947 | 53% | 2018-01-12 | Lost |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1085.7 vs 1018.3 has a 59.58% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).