The Grist Mill
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 78 (19 on the archive and 59 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (North Korean): 39
Defender wins (American): 39
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1273 | 1126 | 70% | 2024-10-08 | Lost |
| 1110 | 1137 | 46% | 2024-03-02 | Won |
| 1150 | 999 | 70% | 2023-05-06 | Lost |
| 1250 | 769 | 94% | 2020-06-02 | Won |
| 1093 | 1090 | 50% | 2020-03-12 | Won |
| 1005 | 874 | 68% | 2019-07-13 | Lost |
| 1150 | 946 | 76% | 2019-05-30 | Lost |
| 1116 | 976 | 69% | 2019-01-08 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2018-11-11 | Won |
| 1141 | 1047 | 63% | 2018-10-06 | Won |
| 1140 | 967 | 73% | 2018-08-22 | Won |
| 952 | 1259 | 15% | 2018-06-30 | Lost |
| 1119 | 1069 | 57% | 2018-04-29 | Lost |
| 1001 | 864 | 69% | 2018-04-29 | Lost |
| 870 | 1116 | 20% | 2018-03-28 | Lost |
| 1043 | 1100 | 42% | 2018-03-24 | Won |
| 998 | 940 | 58% | 2018-02-24 | Lost |
| 1023 | 968 | 58% | 2018-01-12 | Lost |
| 923 | 948 | 46% | 2018-01-12 | Lost |
Attacking (8 wins) average ELOs: 1076.1 vs 1014.9 has a 58.71% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).