The Grist Mill
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 83 (21 on the archive and 62 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (North Korean): 41
Defender wins (American): 42
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1211 | 944 | 82% | 2026-07-05 | | Won |
| 1056 | 1011 | 56% | 2025-01-24 | | Won |
| 1348 | 1133 | 78% | 2024-10-08 | | Lost |
| 1150 | 1000 | 70% | 2024-03-02 | | Won |
| 1272 | 729 | 96% | 2020-06-02 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1103 | 36% | 2020-03-12 | | Won |
| 1006 | 992 | 52% | 2019-07-13 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1061 | 41% | 2019-05-30 | | Lost |
| 1134 | 986 | 70% | 2019-01-08 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1088 | 38% | 2018-11-11 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1039 | 44% | 2018-10-06 | | Won |
| 1133 | 970 | 72% | 2018-08-22 | | Won |
| 952 | 1170 | 22% | 2018-06-30 | | Lost |
| 1343 | 1000 | 88% | 2018-06-29 | | Lost |
| 1008 | 864 | 70% | 2018-04-29 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1068 | 40% | 2018-04-29 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1134 | 32% | 2018-03-28 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1120 | 33% | 2018-03-24 | | Won |
| 1156 | 982 | 73% | 2018-02-24 | | Lost |
| 1116 | 918 | 76% | 2018-01-12 | | Lost |
| 981 | 1000 | 47% | 2018-01-12 | | Lost |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1088.9 vs 1014.9 has a 60.49% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).