Under the Noel Trees
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 443 (21 on the archive and 422 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 225
Defender wins (American): 218
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1041 | 1041 | 50% | 2024-11-13 | Won |
| 1152 | 1152 | 50% | 2024-05-05 | Won |
| 973 | 958 | 52% | 2023-09-20 | Won |
| 1050 | 1021 | 54% | 2023-09-02 | Won |
| 1143 | 1172 | 46% | 2023-04-13 | Won |
| 901 | 940 | 44% | 2022-11-23 | Lost |
| 1002 | 987 | 52% | 2022-09-20 | Won |
| 971 | 892 | 61% | 2021-07-18 | Lost |
| 901 | 1012 | 35% | 2021-05-21 | Lost |
| 986 | 957 | 54% | 2020-12-03 | Won |
| 1080 | 872 | 77% | 2020-11-07 | Won |
| 1011 | 1032 | 47% | 2020-09-27 | Lost |
| 863 | 993 | 32% | 2020-04-14 | Won |
| 901 | 928 | 46% | 2020-03-03 | Won |
| 1008 | 1225 | 22% | 2019-12-16 | Lost |
| 1213 | 1118 | 63% | 2018-03-28 | Won |
| 1118 | 1213 | 37% | 2018-03-26 | Lost |
| 1058 | 967 | 63% | 2018-02-04 | Lost |
| 1219 | 890 | 87% | 2017-06-07 | Won |
| 1008 | 1223 | 22% | 2017-02-10 | Lost |
| 1099 | 1029 | 60% | 2016-09-21 | Lost |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1033.2 vs 1029.6 has a 50.52% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).