Under the Noel Trees
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 443 (21 on the archive and 422 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 225
Defender wins (American): 218
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1041 | 1041 | 50% | 2024-11-13 | Won |
| 1152 | 1152 | 50% | 2024-05-05 | Won |
| 994 | 957 | 55% | 2023-09-20 | Won |
| 1050 | 1021 | 54% | 2023-09-02 | Won |
| 1146 | 1177 | 46% | 2023-04-13 | Won |
| 909 | 939 | 46% | 2022-11-23 | Lost |
| 991 | 987 | 51% | 2022-09-20 | Won |
| 971 | 892 | 61% | 2021-07-18 | Lost |
| 909 | 1048 | 31% | 2021-05-21 | Lost |
| 985 | 956 | 54% | 2020-12-03 | Won |
| 1106 | 871 | 79% | 2020-11-07 | Won |
| 964 | 1032 | 40% | 2020-09-27 | Lost |
| 864 | 998 | 32% | 2020-04-14 | Won |
| 909 | 886 | 53% | 2020-03-03 | Won |
| 957 | 1238 | 17% | 2019-12-16 | Lost |
| 1193 | 1116 | 61% | 2018-03-28 | Won |
| 1116 | 1193 | 39% | 2018-03-26 | Lost |
| 1058 | 968 | 63% | 2018-02-04 | Lost |
| 1221 | 890 | 87% | 2017-06-07 | Won |
| 1007 | 1223 | 22% | 2017-02-10 | Lost |
| 1102 | 1032 | 60% | 2016-09-21 | Lost |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1030.7 vs 1029.4 has a 50.19% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).