Under the Noel Trees
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 443 (21 on the archive and 422 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 225
Defender wins (American): 218
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1041 | 1041 | 50% | 2024-11-13 | Won |
| 1152 | 1152 | 50% | 2024-05-05 | Won |
| 997 | 786 | 77% | 2023-09-20 | Won |
| 1050 | 1021 | 54% | 2023-09-02 | Won |
| 1141 | 1173 | 45% | 2023-04-13 | Won |
| 903 | 939 | 45% | 2022-11-23 | Lost |
| 1018 | 987 | 54% | 2022-09-20 | Won |
| 971 | 892 | 61% | 2021-07-18 | Lost |
| 903 | 1022 | 34% | 2021-05-21 | Lost |
| 985 | 956 | 54% | 2020-12-03 | Won |
| 1116 | 856 | 82% | 2020-11-07 | Won |
| 1020 | 1032 | 48% | 2020-09-27 | Lost |
| 862 | 960 | 36% | 2020-04-14 | Won |
| 903 | 903 | 50% | 2020-03-03 | Won |
| 953 | 1257 | 15% | 2019-12-16 | Lost |
| 1219 | 1115 | 65% | 2018-03-28 | Won |
| 1115 | 1219 | 35% | 2018-03-26 | Lost |
| 1058 | 967 | 63% | 2018-02-04 | Lost |
| 1219 | 890 | 87% | 2017-06-07 | Won |
| 1008 | 1223 | 22% | 2017-02-10 | Lost |
| 1100 | 1029 | 60% | 2016-09-21 | Lost |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1035 vs 1020 has a 52.15% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).