Confusion Reigns
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 211 (16 on the archive and 195 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 127
Defender wins (German): 84
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 961 | 973 | 48% | 2025-05-07 | Won |
| 977 | 977 | 50% | 2024-02-20 | Won |
| 951 | 937 | 52% | 2022-03-29 | Won |
| 1228 | 1090 | 69% | 2022-03-03 | Lost |
| 974 | 959 | 52% | 2022-01-29 | Won |
| 959 | 1047 | 38% | 2022-01-01 | Won |
| 1004 | 1182 | 26% | 2021-03-05 | Won |
| 1004 | 1172 | 28% | 2021-03-02 | Won |
| 1182 | 1004 | 74% | 2021-03-01 | Won |
| 843 | 944 | 36% | 2021-02-08 | Lost |
| 1061 | 989 | 60% | 2021-01-04 | Won |
| 1102 | 914 | 75% | 2020-04-07 | Won |
| 947 | 974 | 46% | 2019-02-09 | Won |
| 1090 | 935 | 71% | 2016-12-06 | Won |
| 850 | 860 | 49% | 2016-11-02 | Won |
| 1090 | 1087 | 50% | 2016-10-06 | Won |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1013.9 vs 1002.8 has a 51.61% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).