Initial Skirmish
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 68 (24 on the archive and 44 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 32
Defender wins (French): 36
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1156 | 982 | 73% | 2026-05-28 | | Won |
| 1084 | 1000 | 62% | 2025-11-24 | | Lost |
| 891 | 1009 | 34% | 2025-03-21 | | Lost |
| 1056 | 1120 | 41% | 2025-01-23 | | Lost |
| 1183 | 933 | 81% | 2024-11-14 | | Lost |
| 1064 | 1000 | 59% | 2024-11-14 | | Won |
| 1171 | 1219 | 43% | 2024-07-02 | | Lost |
| 780 | 963 | 26% | 2023-11-23 | | Lost |
| 1136 | 1000 | 69% | 2023-11-05 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1141 | 31% | 2023-11-05 | | Lost |
| 989 | 1000 | 48% | 2023-09-30 | | Won |
| 891 | 995 | 35% | 2023-03-24 | | Lost |
| 1162 | 1051 | 65% | 2022-03-25 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1098 | 36% | 2021-10-24 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1031 | 46% | 2021-01-30 | | Lost |
| 1068 | 1116 | 43% | 2021-01-26 | | Won |
| 1136 | 1176 | 44% | 2017-11-02 | | Won |
| 1089 | 1136 | 43% | 2017-11-01 | | Lost |
| 994 | 1219 | 21% | 2016-12-27 | | Lost |
| 1049 | 1218 | 27% | 2016-10-06 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1147 | 30% | 2016-10-06 | | Won |
| 1051 | 987 | 59% | 2016-10-06 | | Won |
| 1329 | 1051 | 83% | 2016-10-01 | | Won |
| 1170 | 1000 | 73% | 2016-09-03 | | Lost |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1060.4 vs 1066.3 has a 49.14% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).