Initial Skirmish
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 69 (25 on the archive and 44 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 32
Defender wins (French): 37
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1156 | 952 | 76% | 2026-05-28 | | Won |
| 1032 | 1000 | 55% | 2025-11-24 | | Lost |
| 891 | 1009 | 34% | 2025-03-21 | | Lost |
| 1056 | 1120 | 41% | 2025-01-23 | | Lost |
| 1167 | 939 | 79% | 2024-11-14 | | Lost |
| 1043 | 1000 | 56% | 2024-11-14 | | Won |
| 1171 | 1219 | 43% | 2024-07-02 | | Lost |
| 780 | 975 | 25% | 2023-11-23 | | Lost |
| 1126 | 1000 | 67% | 2023-11-05 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1141 | 31% | 2023-11-05 | | Lost |
| 1205 | 1000 | 76% | 2023-10-06 | | Lost |
| 989 | 1000 | 48% | 2023-09-30 | | Won |
| 891 | 1012 | 33% | 2023-03-24 | | Lost |
| 1162 | 1063 | 64% | 2022-03-25 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1084 | 38% | 2021-10-24 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1028 | 46% | 2021-01-30 | | Lost |
| 1060 | 1069 | 49% | 2021-01-26 | | Won |
| 1126 | 1176 | 43% | 2017-11-02 | | Won |
| 1089 | 1126 | 45% | 2017-11-01 | | Lost |
| 994 | 1219 | 21% | 2016-12-27 | | Lost |
| 1081 | 1218 | 31% | 2016-10-06 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1146 | 30% | 2016-10-06 | | Won |
| 1063 | 986 | 61% | 2016-10-06 | | Won |
| 1317 | 1063 | 81% | 2016-10-01 | | Won |
| 1241 | 1000 | 80% | 2016-09-03 | | Lost |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1065.6 vs 1061.8 has a 50.55% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).