Coal in Their Stockings
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 127 (31 on the archive and 96 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 65
Defender wins (German): 62
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 945 | 1023 | 39% | 2025-12-13 | Lost |
| 1038 | 1038 | 50% | 2024-07-04 | Lost |
| 940 | 918 | 53% | 2024-03-19 | Won |
| 1191 | 1098 | 63% | 2024-03-15 | Won |
| 1204 | 1098 | 65% | 2024-03-15 | Won |
| 1282 | 1024 | 82% | 2024-03-02 | Won |
| 1024 | 1282 | 18% | 2024-02-24 | Lost |
| 1047 | 1109 | 41% | 2023-09-26 | Lost |
| 1135 | 1023 | 66% | 2022-02-26 | Lost |
| 1023 | 1030 | 49% | 2022-02-06 | Won |
| 879 | 1078 | 24% | 2021-05-23 | Won |
| 879 | 1030 | 30% | 2020-05-06 | Lost |
| 1028 | 958 | 60% | 2020-04-29 | Lost |
| 981 | 1110 | 32% | 2019-12-16 | Lost |
| 940 | 1052 | 34% | 2019-09-02 | Lost |
| 1018 | 1028 | 49% | 2019-07-20 | Lost |
| 1174 | 1118 | 58% | 2019-06-08 | Lost |
| 970 | 1174 | 24% | 2019-05-16 | Lost |
| 954 | 1037 | 38% | 2019-01-19 | Won |
| 1174 | 1103 | 60% | 2018-01-27 | Won |
| 988 | 1204 | 22% | 2017-11-12 | Won |
| 1110 | 1123 | 48% | 2017-07-06 | Won |
| 1018 | 1003 | 52% | 2017-03-11 | Lost |
| 1167 | 1211 | 44% | 2016-10-13 | Lost |
| 1078 | 1020 | 58% | 2016-06-27 | Won |
| 1212 | 1118 | 63% | 2016-06-10 | Won |
| 1095 | 1340 | 20% | 2016-06-01 | Lost |
| 1151 | 1053 | 64% | 2016-02-26 | Won |
| 1151 | 713 | 93% | 2016-01-20 | Won |
| 1021 | 1137 | 34% | 2015-03-13 | Won |
| 1204 | 958 | 80% | 2015-01-16 | Won |
Attacking (16 wins) average ELOs: 1065.2 vs 1071.3 has a 49.12% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).