The Island
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 29 (17 on the archive and 12 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (British): 21
Defender wins (German (SS)): 6
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 986 | 1000 | 48% | 2024-12-22 | | Won |
| 980 | 1125 | 30% | 2021-04-09 | | Lost |
| 1006 | 926 | 61% | 2021-04-06 | | Tied |
| 1164 | 1045 | 66% | 2020-11-12 | | Won |
| 1028 | 1016 | 52% | 2020-10-05 | | Lost |
| 1052 | 1000 | 57% | 2020-05-30 | | Won |
| 1016 | 1000 | 52% | 2018-12-01 | | Won |
| 1016 | 1000 | 52% | 2018-11-25 | | Won |
| 1016 | 1000 | 52% | 2018-10-30 | | Tied |
| 1000 | 889 | 65% | 2018-10-23 | | Won |
| 846 | 981 | 31% | 2016-12-21 | | Lost |
| 846 | 981 | 31% | 2016-12-21 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1174 | 27% | 2016-08-16 | | Won |
| 999 | 1226 | 21% | 2015-06-28 | | Won |
| 1435 | 944 | 94% | 2015-03-07 | | Won |
| 1220 | 1000 | 78% | 2015-01-16 | | Won |
| 1035 | 1038 | 50% | 2015-01-02 | | Won |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1037.9 vs 1020.3 has a 52.54% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).