The Crown of Thorn
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 46 (16 on the archive and 31 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 21
Defender wins (German): 25
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (American): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1132 | 1000 | 68% | 2026-10-04 | | Won |
| 954 | 1000 | 43% | 2026-06-13 | | Won |
| 989 | 1145 | 29% | 2026-06-13 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1156 | 29% | 2026-06-12 | | Lost |
| 958 | 998 | 44% | 2024-11-22 | D | Won |
| 969 | 985 | 48% | 2024-08-22 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1046 | 43% | 2023-10-05 | | Won |
| 1014 | 1050 | 45% | 2021-02-17 | | Won |
| 722 | 1167 | 7% | 2020-01-29 | | Lost |
| 949 | 1000 | 43% | 2016-04-03 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1114 | 34% | 2015-10-24 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1101 | 36% | 2014-04-12 | | Won |
| 1046 | 998 | 57% | 2014-04-12 | | Lost |
| 1046 | 1000 | 57% | 2014-04-07 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1136 | 31% | 2014-02-12 | | Won |
| 1165 | 1101 | 59% | 2013-10-07 | | Lost |
Attacking (8 wins) average ELOs: 996.5 vs 1062.3 has a 40.64% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).