The Crown of Thorn
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 39 (11 on the archive and 28 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 17
Defender wins (German): 22
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 952 | 986 | 45% | 2024-08-22 | Lost |
| 1055 | 1044 | 52% | 2023-10-05 | Won |
| 1034 | 1048 | 48% | 2021-02-17 | Won |
| 955 | 876 | 61% | 2016-04-03 | Won |
| 1009 | 1094 | 38% | 2015-10-24 | Lost |
| 1106 | 1098 | 51% | 2014-04-12 | Won |
| 1058 | 998 | 59% | 2014-04-12 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1183 | 33% | 2014-04-07 | Lost |
| 887 | 1125 | 20% | 2014-02-12 | Won |
| 1133 | 1016 | 66% | 2013-12-01 | Lost |
| 1125 | 1098 | 54% | 2013-10-07 | Lost |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1033.8 vs 1051.5 has a 47.46% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).