The Marco Polo Bridge Incident
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 30
Attacker wins (Japanese): 14
Defender wins (Chinese): 16
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 984 | 997 | 48% | 2023-08-22 | Won |
| 984 | 997 | 48% | 2023-08-19 | Won |
| 997 | 984 | 52% | 2023-08-17 | Won |
| 955 | 999 | 44% | 2022-09-17 | Lost |
| 1068 | 1051 | 52% | 2021-09-26 | Lost |
| 1109 | 1112 | 50% | 2021-03-20 | Lost |
| 1011 | 994 | 52% | 2021-01-31 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1012 | 56% | 2020-04-20 | Lost |
| 732 | 881 | 30% | 2018-01-15 | Won |
| 1140 | 857 | 84% | 2017-11-03 | Won |
| 1133 | 1069 | 59% | 2017-10-07 | Lost |
| 1126 | 998 | 68% | 2017-03-18 | Lost |
| 881 | 880 | 50% | 2016-10-26 | Won |
| 881 | 999 | 34% | 2016-10-11 | Lost |
| 1223 | 849 | 90% | 2016-04-25 | Won |
| 1259 | 1151 | 65% | 2016-02-01 | Won |
| 907 | 1016 | 35% | 2015-11-28 | Won |
| 1021 | 1250 | 21% | 2014-12-28 | Lost |
| 1086 | 1023 | 59% | 2014-10-09 | Won |
| 999 | 1018 | 47% | 2014-07-09 | Lost |
| 954 | 917 | 55% | 2014-04-02 | Lost |
| 1105 | 982 | 67% | 2014-01-28 | Lost |
| 1094 | 1009 | 62% | 2013-11-23 | Won |
| 960 | 998 | 45% | 2013-06-22 | Lost |
| 983 | 1060 | 39% | 2013-05-15 | Won |
| 1145 | 1094 | 57% | 2013-04-23 | Won |
| 931 | 1145 | 23% | 2013-03-25 | Lost |
| 1108 | 1100 | 51% | 2013-01-11 | Lost |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1029.7 vs 1015.8 has a 52% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).