The Marco Polo Bridge Incident
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 31
Attacker wins (Japanese): 15
Defender wins (Chinese): 16
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1102 | 868 | 79% | 2025-01-14 | Won |
| 941 | 1040 | 36% | 2023-08-22 | Won |
| 941 | 1040 | 36% | 2023-08-19 | Won |
| 1040 | 941 | 64% | 2023-08-17 | Won |
| 948 | 1125 | 27% | 2022-09-17 | Lost |
| 1102 | 1075 | 54% | 2021-09-26 | Lost |
| 1112 | 1110 | 50% | 2021-03-20 | Lost |
| 1010 | 993 | 52% | 2021-01-31 | Lost |
| 1049 | 1113 | 41% | 2020-04-20 | Lost |
| 730 | 879 | 30% | 2018-01-15 | Won |
| 1154 | 853 | 85% | 2017-11-03 | Won |
| 1126 | 1010 | 66% | 2017-10-07 | Lost |
| 1128 | 993 | 69% | 2017-03-18 | Lost |
| 879 | 880 | 50% | 2016-10-26 | Won |
| 879 | 1125 | 20% | 2016-10-11 | Lost |
| 1226 | 794 | 92% | 2016-04-25 | Won |
| 1216 | 1135 | 61% | 2016-02-01 | Won |
| 907 | 1016 | 35% | 2015-11-28 | Won |
| 1027 | 1254 | 21% | 2014-12-28 | Lost |
| 1222 | 1089 | 68% | 2014-10-09 | Won |
| 1125 | 1037 | 62% | 2014-07-09 | Lost |
| 905 | 920 | 48% | 2014-04-02 | Lost |
| 1124 | 1078 | 57% | 2014-01-28 | Lost |
| 1109 | 1010 | 64% | 2013-11-23 | Won |
| 952 | 993 | 44% | 2013-06-22 | Lost |
| 983 | 1060 | 39% | 2013-05-15 | Won |
| 1145 | 1109 | 55% | 2013-04-23 | Won |
| 927 | 1164 | 20% | 2013-03-25 | Lost |
| 1132 | 1122 | 51% | 2013-01-11 | Lost |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1039.3 vs 1028.5 has a 51.56% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).