The Marco Polo Bridge Incident
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 31
Attacker wins (Japanese): 15
Defender wins (Chinese): 16
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1122 | 867 | 81% | 2025-01-14 | Won |
| 941 | 1054 | 34% | 2023-08-22 | Won |
| 941 | 1054 | 34% | 2023-08-19 | Won |
| 1054 | 941 | 66% | 2023-08-17 | Won |
| 944 | 1004 | 41% | 2022-09-17 | Lost |
| 1099 | 1099 | 50% | 2021-09-26 | Lost |
| 1114 | 1111 | 50% | 2021-03-20 | Lost |
| 1008 | 991 | 52% | 2021-01-31 | Lost |
| 1049 | 1074 | 46% | 2020-04-20 | Lost |
| 730 | 877 | 30% | 2018-01-15 | Won |
| 1151 | 858 | 84% | 2017-11-03 | Won |
| 1154 | 1059 | 63% | 2017-10-07 | Lost |
| 1128 | 1004 | 67% | 2017-03-18 | Lost |
| 877 | 877 | 50% | 2016-10-26 | Won |
| 877 | 1004 | 32% | 2016-10-11 | Lost |
| 1223 | 805 | 92% | 2016-04-25 | Won |
| 1264 | 1170 | 63% | 2016-02-01 | Won |
| 907 | 1016 | 35% | 2015-11-28 | Won |
| 1016 | 1252 | 20% | 2014-12-28 | Lost |
| 1124 | 1099 | 54% | 2014-10-09 | Won |
| 1004 | 1018 | 48% | 2014-07-09 | Lost |
| 998 | 920 | 61% | 2014-04-02 | Lost |
| 1109 | 1060 | 57% | 2014-01-28 | Lost |
| 1093 | 1010 | 62% | 2013-11-23 | Won |
| 951 | 1004 | 42% | 2013-06-22 | Lost |
| 983 | 1060 | 39% | 2013-05-15 | Won |
| 1144 | 1093 | 57% | 2013-04-23 | Won |
| 928 | 1148 | 22% | 2013-03-25 | Lost |
| 1100 | 1107 | 49% | 2013-01-11 | Lost |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1035.6 vs 1021.9 has a 51.97% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).