By Dawn's Early Light
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 101 (27 on the archive and 74 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 52
Defender wins (American): 49
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1215 | 1230 | 48% | 2026-06-06 | Won |
| 1211 | 1217 | 49% | 2026-06-05 | Won |
| 1070 | 984 | 62% | 2026-06-05 | Won |
| 1099 | 1021 | 61% | 2025-06-28 | Lost |
| 1236 | 1208 | 54% | 2024-10-27 | Won |
| 1116 | 945 | 73% | 2024-10-11 | Lost |
| 977 | 977 | 50% | 2023-03-27 | Won |
| 1022 | 1070 | 43% | 2023-03-27 | Won |
| 1127 | 1102 | 54% | 2023-01-21 | Won |
| 948 | 1084 | 31% | 2023-01-21 | Lost |
| 1077 | 1005 | 60% | 2022-01-13 | Lost |
| 1120 | 1231 | 35% | 2021-10-03 | Lost |
| 953 | 982 | 46% | 2021-07-13 | Lost |
| 1121 | 1117 | 51% | 2021-04-08 | Won |
| 1170 | 1097 | 60% | 2019-11-23 | Lost |
| 1170 | 1097 | 60% | 2019-11-23 | Lost |
| 945 | 1000 | 42% | 2019-10-30 | Won |
| 875 | 1080 | 24% | 2017-07-30 | Won |
| 1084 | 1263 | 26% | 2017-07-30 | Lost |
| 991 | 958 | 55% | 2017-05-18 | Won |
| 1009 | 1120 | 35% | 2014-07-07 | Lost |
| 1052 | 934 | 66% | 2014-02-23 | Lost |
| 961 | 1140 | 26% | 2012-11-04 | Won |
| 1252 | 1238 | 52% | 2012-07-28 | Lost |
| 1052 | 1107 | 42% | 2012-05-18 | Won |
| 1019 | 1253 | 21% | 2012-03-11 | Lost |
| 984 | 957 | 54% | 2012-03-11 | Won |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1068.7 vs 1089.5 has a 47.01% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).