Bidermann's Escape
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 229 (49 on the archive and 180 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 121
Defender wins (Russian): 108
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1093 | 1093 | 50% | 2024-10-14 | Lost |
| 1070 | 1055 | 52% | 2024-07-12 | Won |
| 1309 | 1025 | 84% | 2024-01-13 | Lost |
| 1084 | 1019 | 59% | 2024-01-12 | Lost |
| 1149 | 1137 | 52% | 2022-09-11 | Won |
| 1208 | 1032 | 73% | 2021-03-17 | Lost |
| 958 | 1195 | 20% | 2020-06-12 | Lost |
| 1043 | 1209 | 28% | 2020-02-08 | Won |
| 929 | 986 | 42% | 2019-11-30 | Won |
| 1012 | 1092 | 39% | 2019-01-01 | Won |
| 1084 | 1016 | 60% | 2018-08-04 | Won |
| 1158 | 924 | 79% | 2017-07-20 | Won |
| 980 | 1012 | 45% | 2016-05-27 | Won |
| 1115 | 1169 | 42% | 2015-01-24 | Lost |
| 1043 | 1029 | 52% | 2015-01-23 | Won |
| 1040 | 1008 | 55% | 2014-04-12 | Won |
| 1040 | 1012 | 54% | 2014-03-24 | Lost |
| 1114 | 1125 | 48% | 2013-10-25 | Lost |
| 1080 | 1053 | 54% | 2013-05-18 | Won |
| 1309 | 1168 | 69% | 2013-05-11 | Won |
| 1098 | 982 | 66% | 2013-04-13 | Won |
| 1098 | 982 | 66% | 2013-04-13 | Won |
| 1223 | 1171 | 57% | 2012-12-12 | Won |
| 1012 | 1036 | 47% | 2012-10-06 | Won |
| 942 | 1098 | 29% | 2012-10-03 | Won |
| 1099 | 1043 | 58% | 2012-05-30 | Won |
| 1113 | 1113 | 50% | 2012-02-24 | Lost |
| 846 | 993 | 30% | 2011-10-06 | Won |
| 1049 | 1136 | 38% | 2010-11-01 | Lost |
| 919 | 1143 | 22% | 2010-10-31 | Won |
| 1018 | 1143 | 33% | 2010-10-07 | Lost |
| 852 | 1018 | 28% | 2010-08-21 | Lost |
| 1141 | 1136 | 51% | 2010-08-01 | Won |
| 1137 | 1009 | 68% | 2010-07-12 | Lost |
| 1046 | 978 | 60% | 2010-06-27 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1132 | 33% | 2010-06-27 | Won |
| 852 | 909 | 42% | 2010-04-01 | Lost |
| 1015 | 1108 | 37% | 2010-02-27 | Lost |
| 1254 | 1169 | 62% | 2010-01-01 | Won |
| 890 | 1050 | 28% | 2009-09-18 | Lost |
| 1405 | 1088 | 86% | 2009-09-11 | Won |
| 1012 | 1002 | 51% | 2009-07-10 | Won |
| 1012 | 1002 | 51% | 2009-07-10 | Won |
| 975 | 1088 | 34% | 2009-06-13 | Won |
| 958 | 1010 | 43% | 2009-03-10 | Won |
| 1085 | 1012 | 60% | 2008-10-01 | Lost |
| 975 | 1183 | 23% | 2008-06-23 | Lost |
| 1028 | 1105 | 39% | | Lost |
Attacking (28 wins) average ELOs: 1060 vs 1066.6 has a 49.05% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).