Sting of the Italian Hornet
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 24
Attacker wins (Canadian): 8
Defender wins (Italian): 16
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 905 | 941 | 45% | 2024-10-14 | Won |
| 993 | 976 | 52% | 2024-05-19 | Lost |
| 1029 | 1060 | 46% | 2024-05-19 | Lost |
| 978 | 1009 | 46% | 2019-09-15 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2019-03-10 | Lost |
| 1227 | 1198 | 54% | 2018-12-07 | Lost |
| 932 | 1217 | 16% | 2018-03-12 | Lost |
| 1068 | 970 | 64% | 2017-09-03 | Won |
| 1056 | 981 | 61% | 2017-09-02 | Lost |
| 1036 | 1116 | 39% | 2016-04-19 | Lost |
| 1036 | 1068 | 45% | 2015-01-17 | Won |
| 1253 | 1323 | 40% | 2013-06-13 | Won |
| 1253 | 1158 | 63% | 2013-04-12 | Won |
| 1071 | 1091 | 47% | 2013-03-12 | Won |
| 1173 | 1143 | 54% | 2011-10-08 | Won |
| 1117 | 1126 | 49% | 2010-12-15 | Lost |
| 917 | 1253 | 13% | 2009-09-11 | Lost |
| 1137 | 1076 | 59% | 2009-02-03 | Lost |
| 983 | 1036 | 42% | 2009-01-25 | Lost |
| 1012 | 1012 | 50% | 2008-10-11 | Lost |
| 1002 | 1123 | 33% | 2008-10-10 | Lost |
| 1140 | 979 | 72% | 2008-10-06 | Won |
| 1243 | 1017 | 79% | 2008-09-23 | Lost |
| 1068 | 726 | 88% | 2008-09-20 | Lost |
Attacking (8 wins) average ELOs: 1071.5 vs 1070.3 has a 50.18% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).