Eviction Notice
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 212 (44 on the archive and 168 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 112
Defender wins (German): 100
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 940 | 979 | 44% | 2025-03-02 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1089 | 37% | 2025-02-20 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1033 | 45% | 2024-01-25 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1208 | 23% | 2024-01-15 | | Lost |
| 985 | 1000 | 48% | 2022-03-12 | | Won |
| 1000 | 989 | 52% | 2022-03-12 | | Won |
| 1025 | 1000 | 54% | 2021-01-21 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1173 | 27% | 2019-03-19 | | Lost |
| 1134 | 1035 | 64% | 2018-10-11 | | Won |
| 1006 | 992 | 52% | 2018-07-07 | | Won |
| 1058 | 1001 | 58% | 2018-06-23 | | Won |
| 967 | 1000 | 45% | 2018-05-12 | | Lost |
| 1013 | 1149 | 31% | 2018-05-05 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1108 | 35% | 2018-03-20 | | Lost |
| 975 | 953 | 53% | 2017-11-19 | | Lost |
| 1064 | 1163 | 36% | 2017-11-19 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1064 | 41% | 2017-11-15 | | Lost |
| 808 | 1226 | 8% | 2017-07-12 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1242 | 20% | 2017-03-27 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1064 | 41% | 2015-12-04 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1138 | 31% | 2015-09-25 | | Lost |
| 1038 | 1000 | 55% | 2014-12-05 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 940 | 59% | 2014-03-29 | | Won |
| 998 | 1003 | 49% | 2014-03-04 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 870 | 68% | 2012-03-04 | | Won |
| 870 | 1101 | 21% | 2011-01-27 | | Won |
| 1242 | 934 | 85% | 2010-11-28 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1019 | 47% | 2010-10-30 | | Lost |
| 1086 | 1019 | 60% | 2010-08-24 | | Lost |
| 1019 | 851 | 72% | 2010-08-19 | | Won |
| 962 | 974 | 48% | 2010-07-01 | | Won |
| 1147 | 1000 | 70% | 2010-01-16 | | Lost |
| 990 | 1000 | 49% | 2009-05-03 | | Lost |
| 997 | 1000 | 50% | 2009-01-30 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1074 | 40% | 2009-01-25 | | Lost |
| 1035 | 1269 | 21% | 2008-10-08 | | Lost |
| 1151 | 961 | 75% | 2008-06-07 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1101 | 36% | 2008-05-17 | | Won |
| 1101 | 1000 | 64% | 2008-04-22 | | Lost |
| 1151 | 1435 | 16% | 2008-04-12 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1080 | 39% | 2008-03-30 | | Won |
| 1022 | 1000 | 53% | 2008-02-23 | | Won |
| 961 | 1150 | 25% | 2008-02-22 | | Won |
| 933 | 1056 | 33% | 2008-01-18 | | Lost |
Attacking (21 wins) average ELOs: 1015.4 vs 1055.5 has a 44.25% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).