Forging Spetsnaz
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 79 (20 on the archive and 59 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 39
Defender wins (Japanese): 40
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1177 | 1152 | 54% | 2020-10-25 | Lost |
| 1029 | 1038 | 49% | 2018-07-21 | Lost |
| 1182 | 988 | 75% | 2016-07-30 | Won |
| 997 | 1156 | 29% | 2016-07-30 | Lost |
| 1227 | 962 | 82% | 2016-07-30 | Won |
| 1099 | 1098 | 50% | 2015-06-11 | Lost |
| 1030 | 976 | 58% | 2014-06-28 | Won |
| 1042 | 1133 | 37% | 2014-04-14 | Lost |
| 920 | 1031 | 35% | 2013-11-20 | Lost |
| 1115 | 1263 | 30% | 2012-10-05 | Won |
| 1146 | 1030 | 66% | 2012-03-10 | Lost |
| 1019 | 1253 | 21% | 2012-02-03 | Lost |
| 936 | 982 | 43% | 2011-03-24 | Lost |
| 991 | 1187 | 24% | 2011-03-18 | Lost |
| 1077 | 1044 | 55% | 2010-07-17 | Won |
| 1144 | 1077 | 60% | 2010-01-14 | Won |
| 1077 | 1151 | 40% | 2008-12-22 | Lost |
| 1176 | 1171 | 51% | 2008-02-23 | Lost |
| 1141 | 1065 | 61% | 2008-02-23 | Lost |
| 1090 | 959 | 68% | 2007-11-18 | Lost |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1080.8 vs 1085.8 has a 49.27% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).