On the Road to Hell
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 137 (26 on the archive and 111 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American/British): 69
Defender wins (German): 67
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1019 | 1000 | 53% | 2025-10-12 | | Lost |
| 1194 | 1000 | 75% | 2025-10-04 | | Won |
| 982 | 954 | 54% | 2025-10-03 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1183 | 26% | 2023-05-27 | | Lost |
| 1219 | 1000 | 78% | 2018-05-04 | | Lost |
| 1231 | 901 | 87% | 2018-02-19 | | Tied |
| 1033 | 1000 | 55% | 2016-12-21 | | Won |
| 1033 | 1000 | 55% | 2016-12-02 | | Lost |
| 1033 | 1000 | 55% | 2016-10-01 | | Lost |
| 954 | 1000 | 43% | 2014-06-27 | | Won |
| 1064 | 1134 | 40% | 2014-05-14 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1136 | 31% | 2012-11-02 | | Lost |
| 995 | 1000 | 49% | 2012-11-01 | | Lost |
| 1042 | 841 | 76% | 2011-06-26 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1101 | 36% | 2011-03-08 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1059 | 42% | 2010-05-10 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1033 | 45% | 2009-03-21 | | Won |
| 933 | 1183 | 19% | 2009-02-06 | | Lost |
| 1151 | 1078 | 60% | 2009-01-31 | | Lost |
| 728 | 996 | 18% | 2008-12-13 | | Won |
| 1194 | 1000 | 75% | 2008-02-27 | | Won |
| 780 | 1141 | 11% | 2008-01-21 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1343 | 12% | 2008-01-06 | | Lost |
| 922 | 1000 | 39% | 2007-12-20 | | Lost |
| 1035 | 1000 | 55% | 2007-12-11 | | Won |
| 1348 | 1194 | 71% | 2007-10-27 | | Won |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1034.2 vs 1049.1 has a 47.86% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).