Agony at Arnautovo
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 134 (26 on the archive and 108 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian / Partisan): 77
Defender wins (Italian): 57
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 977 | 53% | 2022-03-19 | | Won |
| 1029 | 1000 | 54% | 2022-03-19 | | Won |
| 1000 | 976 | 53% | 2021-04-16 | | Won |
| 1035 | 1060 | 46% | 2020-10-10 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1077 | 39% | 2020-07-08 | | Lost |
| 983 | 943 | 56% | 2020-01-25 | | Won |
| 1127 | 1108 | 53% | 2013-11-29 | | Won |
| 1175 | 1060 | 66% | 2013-03-24 | | Won |
| 1192 | 1052 | 69% | 2013-03-09 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1147 | 30% | 2011-06-12 | | Won |
| 1000 | 983 | 52% | 2011-04-20 | | Lost |
| 1080 | 896 | 74% | 2011-02-28 | | Won |
| 1019 | 1015 | 51% | 2011-02-26 | | Won |
| 1090 | 1000 | 63% | 2010-12-21 | | Won |
| 989 | 1066 | 39% | 2010-05-01 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1006 | 49% | 2009-12-18 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1219 | 22% | 2009-09-12 | | Lost |
| 1156 | 1000 | 71% | 2008-11-08 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1055 | 42% | 2008-07-10 | | Lost |
| 982 | 994 | 48% | 2007-11-30 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1151 | 30% | 2007-11-15 | | Lost |
| 1151 | 1150 | 50% | 2007-10-23 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1192 | 25% | 2007-10-09 | | Won |
| 1078 | 1000 | 61% | 2007-10-01 | | Won |
| 1151 | 1000 | 70% | 2007-09-27 | | Lost |
| 1018 | 1086 | 40% | | | Lost |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1048.3 vs 1046.7 has a 50.23% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).