Winter of Their Discontent
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 97 (23 on the archive and 74 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 40
Defender wins (Italian / German): 57
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1174 | 1000 | 73% | 2024-11-04 | | Won |
| 991 | 1142 | 30% | 2024-02-18 | | Won |
| 1000 | 971 | 54% | 2022-08-23 | | Lost |
| 1219 | 1171 | 57% | 2022-07-13 | | Lost |
| 1051 | 944 | 65% | 2021-12-06 | | Lost |
| 958 | 1028 | 40% | 2021-06-25 | | Lost |
| 973 | 1000 | 46% | 2020-11-04 | | Lost |
| 1068 | 1000 | 60% | 2020-05-22 | | Lost |
| 1192 | 1000 | 75% | 2018-04-09 | | Lost |
| 1219 | 1019 | 76% | 2016-09-24 | | Won |
| 1075 | 1000 | 61% | 2015-08-28 | | Lost |
| 1034 | 1241 | 23% | 2015-07-25 | | Lost |
| 1126 | 1000 | 67% | 2014-05-29 | | Lost |
| 952 | 1000 | 43% | 2013-01-09 | | Lost |
| 1155 | 1435 | 17% | 2009-08-12 | | Won |
| 1233 | 1134 | 64% | 2008-10-15 | | Won |
| 1012 | 905 | 65% | 2008-04-04 | | Won |
| 1075 | 1164 | 37% | 2008-03-14 | | Won |
| 1029 | 1253 | 22% | 2008-03-07 | | Lost |
| 922 | 1000 | 39% | 2007-10-30 | | Lost |
| 1078 | 1152 | 40% | 2007-07-01 | | Lost |
| 1120 | 1029 | 63% | 2006-01-12 | | Lost |
| 1036 | 1088 | 43% | 2005-12-31 | | Lost |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1073.6 vs 1072.9 has a 50.1% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).