The Five Pound Prize
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 229 (36 on the archive and 193 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 100
Defender wins (British): 129
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1033 | 1013 | 53% | 2025-09-10 | Won |
| 998 | 1084 | 38% | 2025-07-29 | Lost |
| 986 | 1002 | 48% | 2025-01-10 | Won |
| 1015 | 981 | 55% | 2024-06-14 | Won |
| 1082 | 1028 | 58% | 2022-08-05 | Lost |
| 1216 | 1191 | 54% | 2022-06-18 | Lost |
| 1216 | 1186 | 54% | 2022-06-18 | Lost |
| 1152 | 1254 | 36% | 2021-02-01 | Lost |
| 1041 | 1254 | 23% | 2021-02-01 | Lost |
| 1340 | 1090 | 81% | 2018-08-17 | Won |
| 929 | 1167 | 20% | 2018-01-20 | Lost |
| 1051 | 1067 | 48% | 2017-10-06 | Lost |
| 1151 | 1138 | 52% | 2016-10-07 | Won |
| 1009 | 1158 | 30% | 2016-01-15 | Won |
| 998 | 1016 | 47% | 2014-12-10 | Lost |
| 949 | 1226 | 17% | 2014-10-11 | Won |
| 1136 | 1110 | 54% | 2014-07-01 | Won |
| 1006 | 1099 | 37% | 2014-03-21 | Won |
| 946 | 1051 | 35% | 2013-12-08 | Lost |
| 1153 | 1067 | 62% | 2013-10-19 | Lost |
| 951 | 993 | 44% | 2013-04-06 | Lost |
| 1070 | 903 | 72% | 2010-03-17 | Won |
| 1038 | 1170 | 32% | 2010-02-26 | Lost |
| 1089 | 939 | 70% | 2009-08-01 | Won |
| 1226 | 1419 | 25% | 2008-05-18 | Lost |
| 1136 | 1084 | 57% | 2008-03-08 | Lost |
| 1016 | 1021 | 49% | 2007-05-12 | Lost |
| 1016 | 1021 | 49% | 2007-05-12 | Lost |
| 1340 | 1103 | 80% | 2006-09-09 | Lost |
| 982 | 1340 | 11% | 2006-03-24 | Won |
| 1207 | 1054 | 71% | 2006-03-17 | Lost |
| 1286 | 1340 | 42% | 2006-01-30 | Lost |
| 1213 | 1038 | 73% | 2005-07-27 | Lost |
| 1013 | 1038 | 46% | 2005-07-19 | Lost |
| 1109 | 1208 | 36% | 2005-05-14 | Lost |
| 713 | 1151 | 7% | 2005-04-01 | Lost |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1078.1 vs 1111.2 has a 45.25% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).