The Road to Lyon
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 20
Attacker wins (German): 14
Defender wins (French): 4
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1252 | 1002 | 81% | 2023-01-29 | Won |
| 966 | 1018 | 43% | 2021-11-19 | Won |
| 1264 | 1063 | 76% | 2020-11-28 | Won |
| 1015 | 1057 | 44% | 2020-11-06 | Lost |
| 1075 | 1000 | 61% | 2017-05-09 | Won |
| 851 | 986 | 31% | 2017-03-04 | Won |
| 851 | 986 | 31% | 2017-03-04 | Won |
| 1154 | 1048 | 65% | 2014-10-05 | Won |
| 1060 | 965 | 63% | 2012-10-26 | Won |
| 1099 | 694 | 91% | 2012-03-17 | Won |
| 694 | 1010 | 14% | 2012-03-16 | Won |
| 1011 | 1082 | 40% | 2010-04-01 | Won |
| 1117 | 1034 | 62% | 2007-04-10 | Won |
| 862 | 1100 | 20% | 2007-03-30 | Won |
| 1313 | 1183 | 68% | 2006-09-08 | Tied |
| 1285 | 1313 | 46% | 2006-06-22 | Tied |
| 1096 | 1100 | 49% | 2004-07-06 | Lost |
| 1100 | 1096 | 51% | 2004-06-30 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1148 | 30% | 2003-11-09 | Lost |
| 1148 | 899 | 81% | 2002-01-24 | Won |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1060.7 vs 1039.2 has a 53.08% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).