The Road to Lyon
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 20
Attacker wins (German): 14
Defender wins (French): 4
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1207 | 1064 | 69% | 2023-01-29 | Won |
| 889 | 1019 | 32% | 2021-11-19 | Won |
| 1170 | 1074 | 63% | 2020-11-28 | Won |
| 1006 | 1054 | 43% | 2020-11-06 | Lost |
| 1045 | 1000 | 56% | 2017-05-09 | Won |
| 853 | 987 | 32% | 2017-03-04 | Won |
| 853 | 987 | 32% | 2017-03-04 | Won |
| 1150 | 1053 | 64% | 2014-10-05 | Won |
| 1098 | 965 | 68% | 2012-10-26 | Won |
| 1086 | 694 | 91% | 2012-03-17 | Won |
| 694 | 1010 | 14% | 2012-03-16 | Won |
| 1015 | 1080 | 41% | 2010-04-01 | Won |
| 1117 | 1034 | 62% | 2007-04-10 | Won |
| 862 | 1084 | 22% | 2007-03-30 | Won |
| 1274 | 1185 | 63% | 2006-09-08 | Tied |
| 1287 | 1274 | 52% | 2006-06-22 | Tied |
| 1095 | 1101 | 49% | 2004-07-06 | Lost |
| 1101 | 1095 | 51% | 2004-06-30 | Lost |
| 1002 | 1140 | 31% | 2003-11-09 | Lost |
| 1140 | 900 | 80% | 2002-01-24 | Won |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1047.2 vs 1040 has a 51.04% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).