The Dead of Winter
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 242 (49 on the archive and 193 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 108
Defender wins (German): 133
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 998 | 1000 | 50% | 2026-06-19 | | Won |
| 984 | 1000 | 48% | 2025-10-22 | | Lost |
| 925 | 692 | 79% | 2025-07-13 | | Won |
| 930 | 1187 | 19% | 2025-06-16 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1053 | 42% | 2024-04-07 | | Lost |
| 986 | 1134 | 30% | 2023-04-27 | | Won |
| 1064 | 904 | 72% | 2022-11-01 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1066 | 41% | 2022-08-20 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 985 | 52% | 2022-08-15 | | Lost |
| 905 | 1000 | 37% | 2022-03-06 | | Won |
| 1000 | 971 | 54% | 2022-01-10 | | Won |
| 1016 | 1000 | 52% | 2021-09-26 | | Lost |
| 1121 | 1275 | 29% | 2021-03-25 | | Won |
| 952 | 1000 | 43% | 2020-11-08 | | Lost |
| 1159 | 1000 | 71% | 2020-06-29 | | Won |
| 1107 | 1000 | 65% | 2019-03-08 | | Lost |
| 1013 | 1149 | 31% | 2018-11-17 | | Won |
| 1000 | 948 | 57% | 2018-08-14 | | Lost |
| 1132 | 1000 | 68% | 2018-07-23 | | Lost |
| 847 | 1000 | 29% | 2017-10-17 | | Lost |
| 981 | 1000 | 47% | 2017-02-22 | | Lost |
| 1080 | 1000 | 61% | 2017-02-10 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1066 | 41% | 2017-01-05 | | Tied |
| 926 | 1000 | 40% | 2016-11-28 | | Won |
| 966 | 1085 | 34% | 2016-02-22 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1064 | 41% | 2014-09-07 | | Lost |
| 1064 | 1000 | 59% | 2014-08-22 | | Won |
| 1127 | 1000 | 68% | 2013-08-18 | | Won |
| 1011 | 1000 | 52% | 2013-06-28 | | Lost |
| 900 | 1000 | 36% | 2013-03-24 | | Lost |
| 982 | 1000 | 47% | 2012-11-18 | | Lost |
| 1141 | 1073 | 60% | 2012-11-01 | | Won |
| 1141 | 1000 | 69% | 2012-11-01 | | Won |
| 957 | 1136 | 26% | 2011-09-25 | | Lost |
| 1178 | 1136 | 56% | 2011-09-12 | | Won |
| 1136 | 1000 | 69% | 2011-09-05 | | Lost |
| 1141 | 1000 | 69% | 2011-07-08 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1147 | 30% | 2009-09-19 | | Lost |
| 951 | 1000 | 43% | 2009-08-30 | | Lost |
| 1183 | 933 | 81% | 2008-04-13 | | Won |
| 1219 | 1435 | 22% | 2006-09-12 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1036 | 45% | 2006-05-26 | | Lost |
| 1058 | 1000 | 58% | 2005-01-07 | | Lost |
| 1151 | 1000 | 70% | 2004-10-10 | | Won |
| 995 | 1080 | 38% | 2004-03-01 | | Won |
| 1087 | 1074 | 52% | 2003-08-29 | | Won |
| 1009 | 1343 | 13% | 2000-07-31 | | Lost |
| 1080 | 1000 | 61% | 1998-04-28 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1133 | 32% | 1994-07-15 | | Lost |
Attacking (20 wins) average ELOs: 1032.7 vs 1043 has a 48.53% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).