The Dead of Winter
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 37
Attacker wins (Russian): 13
Defender wins (German): 23
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1154 | 1063 | 63% | 2024-04-07 | Lost |
| 976 | 1116 | 31% | 2023-04-27 | Won |
| 1191 | 910 | 83% | 2022-11-01 | Lost |
| 964 | 1046 | 38% | 2022-08-20 | Lost |
| 1016 | 1016 | 50% | 2022-08-15 | Lost |
| 939 | 939 | 50% | 2022-03-06 | Won |
| 892 | 917 | 46% | 2022-01-10 | Won |
| 938 | 1053 | 34% | 2021-09-26 | Lost |
| 1124 | 1196 | 40% | 2021-03-25 | Won |
| 1036 | 900 | 69% | 2020-11-08 | Lost |
| 1158 | 971 | 75% | 2020-06-29 | Won |
| 1109 | 1221 | 34% | 2019-03-08 | Lost |
| 940 | 998 | 42% | 2018-11-17 | Won |
| 999 | 955 | 56% | 2018-08-14 | Lost |
| 880 | 848 | 55% | 2017-10-17 | Lost |
| 923 | 1020 | 36% | 2017-02-22 | Lost |
| 1069 | 1030 | 56% | 2017-02-10 | Won |
| 1012 | 1012 | 50% | 2017-01-05 | Tied |
| 931 | 940 | 49% | 2016-11-28 | Won |
| 1002 | 1031 | 46% | 2016-02-22 | Lost |
| 999 | 1191 | 25% | 2014-09-07 | Lost |
| 1191 | 999 | 75% | 2014-08-22 | Won |
| 1099 | 1083 | 52% | 2013-08-18 | Won |
| 1010 | 1009 | 50% | 2013-06-28 | Lost |
| 900 | 945 | 44% | 2013-03-24 | Lost |
| 982 | 982 | 50% | 2012-11-18 | Lost |
| 1033 | 1130 | 36% | 2011-09-25 | Lost |
| 1126 | 1130 | 49% | 2011-09-12 | Won |
| 1130 | 956 | 73% | 2011-09-05 | Lost |
| 989 | 982 | 51% | 2009-09-19 | Lost |
| 951 | 1189 | 20% | 2009-08-30 | Lost |
| 1074 | 1074 | 50% | 2008-04-13 | Won |
| 1310 | 1400 | 37% | 2006-09-12 | Lost |
| 1204 | 1037 | 72% | 2006-05-26 | Lost |
| 1055 | 1029 | 54% | 2005-01-07 | Lost |
| 996 | 1069 | 40% | 2004-03-01 | Won |
| 930 | 1126 | 24% | 1994-07-15 | Lost |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1033.3 vs 1040.9 has a 48.91% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).