Smashing the 3rd
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 155 (25 on the archive and 130 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 72
Defender wins (Russian): 83
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 729 | 1283 | 4% | 2024-09-30 | | Lost |
| 1085 | 966 | 66% | 2022-10-27 | | Won |
| 1134 | 1000 | 68% | 2022-07-11 | | Won |
| 1031 | 780 | 81% | 2020-10-14 | | Lost |
| 1066 | 1000 | 59% | 2019-08-16 | | Won |
| 1058 | 1000 | 58% | 2017-06-02 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1226 | 21% | 2017-02-25 | | Won |
| 935 | 1134 | 24% | 2016-10-25 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1013 | 48% | 2016-08-19 | | Won |
| 1000 | 905 | 63% | 2014-08-19 | | Won |
| 1108 | 1147 | 44% | 2013-03-03 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1080 | 39% | 2012-07-15 | | Lost |
| 962 | 974 | 48% | 2012-06-12 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 983 | 52% | 2011-06-12 | | Lost |
| 1208 | 1022 | 74% | 2010-01-22 | | Won |
| 1242 | 1198 | 56% | 2009-10-07 | | Lost |
| 1050 | 1000 | 57% | 2007-03-18 | | Won |
| 1036 | 998 | 55% | 2007-02-03 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1167 | 28% | 2005-09-03 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1219 | 22% | 2005-01-01 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1133 | 32% | 2004-03-24 | | Won |
| 832 | 1133 | 15% | 2001-12-22 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1025 | 46% | 2000-04-01 | | Lost |
| 1086 | 1000 | 62% | | | Lost |
| 1218 | 1086 | 68% | | | Lost |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1031.2 vs 1058.9 has a 46.02% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).