Smashing the 3rd
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 24
Attacker wins (German): 14
Defender wins (Russian): 10
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 747 | 1192 | 7% | 2024-09-30 | Lost |
| 1045 | 999 | 57% | 2022-10-27 | Won |
| 1193 | 1116 | 61% | 2022-07-11 | Won |
| 1029 | 766 | 82% | 2020-10-14 | Lost |
| 1032 | 1035 | 50% | 2019-08-16 | Won |
| 1110 | 962 | 70% | 2017-06-02 | Won |
| 1171 | 1223 | 43% | 2017-02-25 | Won |
| 935 | 1193 | 18% | 2016-10-25 | Lost |
| 985 | 969 | 52% | 2016-08-19 | Won |
| 939 | 977 | 45% | 2014-08-19 | Won |
| 1106 | 1060 | 57% | 2013-03-03 | Won |
| 1079 | 1036 | 56% | 2012-07-15 | Lost |
| 949 | 988 | 44% | 2012-06-12 | Lost |
| 1091 | 983 | 65% | 2011-06-12 | Lost |
| 1157 | 994 | 72% | 2010-01-22 | Won |
| 1061 | 934 | 68% | 2007-03-18 | Won |
| 1041 | 998 | 56% | 2007-02-03 | Won |
| 1160 | 1115 | 56% | 2005-09-03 | Lost |
| 1285 | 1313 | 46% | 2005-01-01 | Won |
| 1070 | 1217 | 30% | 2004-03-24 | Won |
| 848 | 1217 | 11% | 2001-12-22 | Won |
| 1033 | 1058 | 46% | 2000-04-01 | Lost |
| 1090 | 1000 | 63% | | Lost |
| 1219 | 1090 | 68% | | Lost |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1057.3 vs 1059.8 has a 49.64% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).