Mayhem in Manila
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 220 (30 on the archive and 190 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 107
Defender wins (Japanese): 113
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 930 | 1084 | 29% | 2025-12-05 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2024-06-21 | Lost |
| 1054 | 1068 | 48% | 2020-04-14 | Won |
| 1068 | 1054 | 52% | 2020-03-21 | Won |
| 1030 | 1179 | 30% | 2019-04-13 | Won |
| 986 | 1263 | 17% | 2016-07-30 | Lost |
| 786 | 1226 | 7% | 2016-05-23 | Won |
| 997 | 1263 | 18% | 2016-04-02 | Won |
| 965 | 893 | 60% | 2016-02-13 | Lost |
| 1138 | 1125 | 52% | 2011-12-05 | Lost |
| 1028 | 1020 | 51% | 2011-10-06 | Won |
| 1037 | 1219 | 26% | 2011-06-06 | Won |
| 1080 | 1203 | 33% | 2008-08-25 | Lost |
| 1344 | 977 | 89% | 2006-04-01 | Won |
| 1141 | 1087 | 58% | 2005-10-06 | Won |
| 1208 | 1141 | 60% | 2004-10-09 | Won |
| 913 | 1029 | 34% | 2003-07-30 | Lost |
| 1060 | 980 | 61% | 2003-04-25 | Won |
| 1094 | 1005 | 63% | 2002-04-28 | Won |
| 1129 | 1119 | 51% | 2001-10-07 | Lost |
| 1263 | 1292 | 46% | 2001-02-25 | Won |
| 1084 | 1141 | 42% | 2000-10-05 | Won |
| 1112 | 1011 | 64% | 2000-04-09 | Lost |
| 1177 | 1263 | 38% | 1999-10-07 | Lost |
| 1076 | 953 | 67% | 1999-07-31 | Won |
| 902 | 1080 | 26% | 1999-07-09 | Won |
| 1143 | 1263 | 33% | 1999-05-01 | Won |
| 1263 | 1150 | 66% | 1998-04-18 | Won |
| 1078 | 1012 | 59% | | Lost |
Attacking (18 wins) average ELOs: 1075 vs 1109.9 has a 44.98% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).