Totsugeki!
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 138 (63 on the archive and 75 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 71
Defender wins (Chinese): 67
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1089 | 1000 | 63% | 2025-04-06 | | Won |
| 1089 | 1000 | 63% | 2025-01-26 | | Lost |
| 1129 | 1040 | 63% | 2022-09-23 | | Won |
| 1102 | 910 | 75% | 2021-05-31 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1152 | 29% | 2020-10-23 | | Won |
| 932 | 1102 | 27% | 2020-09-05 | | Lost |
| 961 | 980 | 47% | 2020-08-12 | | Lost |
| 1016 | 1018 | 50% | 2020-08-09 | | Won |
| 1167 | 1222 | 42% | 2020-07-31 | | Won |
| 1155 | 1008 | 70% | 2020-05-15 | | Won |
| 944 | 843 | 64% | 2020-05-09 | | Won |
| 1060 | 1147 | 38% | 2020-04-12 | | Lost |
| 1088 | 1000 | 62% | 2020-03-21 | | Lost |
| 998 | 920 | 61% | 2020-01-29 | | Won |
| 1024 | 1263 | 20% | 2019-04-25 | | Lost |
| 1003 | 934 | 60% | 2018-04-26 | | Lost |
| 1126 | 1000 | 67% | 2017-06-24 | | Won |
| 954 | 991 | 45% | 2017-03-18 | | Lost |
| 982 | 1082 | 36% | 2016-09-05 | | Won |
| 1000 | 932 | 60% | 2016-06-06 | | Won |
| 1035 | 1000 | 55% | 2016-04-20 | | Won |
| 990 | 699 | 84% | 2015-07-04 | | Lost |
| 1035 | 1116 | 39% | 2015-02-16 | | Lost |
| 970 | 1219 | 19% | 2015-01-30 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 906 | 63% | 2015-01-23 | | Lost |
| 1155 | 972 | 74% | 2014-10-11 | | Won |
| 1079 | 1033 | 57% | 2014-07-02 | | Won |
| 921 | 1071 | 30% | 2013-11-23 | | Won |
| 1222 | 1093 | 68% | 2013-11-23 | | Lost |
| 1151 | 1000 | 70% | 2013-05-09 | | Won |
| 1045 | 1016 | 54% | 2013-03-09 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1103 | 36% | 2013-02-14 | | Won |
| 1031 | 1000 | 54% | 2011-08-27 | | Won |
| 1000 | 936 | 59% | 2011-06-04 | | Lost |
| 936 | 982 | 43% | 2011-01-30 | | Lost |
| 1253 | 1019 | 79% | 2010-11-11 | | Lost |
| 1008 | 938 | 60% | 2010-09-19 | | Won |
| 1126 | 1003 | 67% | 2009-07-26 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1127 | 32% | 2009-06-09 | | Lost |
| 957 | 951 | 51% | 2009-06-05 | | Won |
| 1035 | 1000 | 55% | 2008-08-19 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1141 | 31% | 2007-11-03 | | Lost |
| 1317 | 1263 | 58% | 2007-07-11 | | Lost |
| 997 | 1025 | 46% | 2007-05-27 | | Won |
| 1141 | 1000 | 69% | 2006-10-07 | | Won |
| 1036 | 1027 | 51% | 2006-04-21 | | Won |
| 1129 | 1096 | 55% | 2006-03-31 | | Won |
| 1093 | 1000 | 63% | 2006-03-04 | | Lost |
| 1047 | 1000 | 57% | 2005-07-29 | | Lost |
| 1047 | 1175 | 32% | 2005-07-13 | | Lost |
| 1016 | 1269 | 19% | 2004-10-29 | | Lost |
| 1144 | 1263 | 34% | 2004-05-29 | | Lost |
| 1029 | 1000 | 54% | 2001-06-23 | | Won |
| 1031 | 1031 | 50% | 1998-12-18 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1141 | 31% | 1998-08-24 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1080 | 39% | 1997-12-24 | | Won |
| 1025 | 1000 | 54% | 1997-11-15 | | Lost |
| 1109 | 1000 | 65% | 1997-09-20 | | Won |
| 1069 | 1109 | 44% | 1996-12-07 | | Won |
| 1008 | 1088 | 39% | 1995-08-05 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1076 | 39% | 1995-08-01 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1077 | 39% | 1988-01-01 | | Lost |
Attacking (34 wins) average ELOs: 1048.5 vs 1041.8 has a 50.97% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).