Cream of the Crop
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 303 (54 on the archive and 249 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 152
Defender wins (Russian): 150
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1017 | 933 | 62% | 2025-09-09 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1185 | 26% | 2025-08-16 | | Lost |
| 1019 | 1215 | 24% | 2024-12-08 | | Lost |
| 1007 | 985 | 53% | 2024-11-22 | | Won |
| 949 | 1000 | 43% | 2024-03-09 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2023-11-30 | | Won |
| 841 | 1000 | 29% | 2023-11-26 | | Won |
| 996 | 950 | 57% | 2023-08-23 | | Won |
| 1020 | 980 | 56% | 2023-03-23 | | Won |
| 1056 | 1000 | 58% | 2022-12-16 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1108 | 35% | 2022-01-15 | | Lost |
| 922 | 904 | 53% | 2021-11-24 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 904 | 63% | 2021-11-12 | | Won |
| 1013 | 949 | 59% | 2021-01-05 | | Won |
| 948 | 1000 | 43% | 2020-09-30 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1076 | 39% | 2020-08-22 | | Won |
| 960 | 1000 | 44% | 2019-03-09 | | Lost |
| 1134 | 970 | 72% | 2018-05-22 | | Won |
| 1116 | 1051 | 59% | 2017-10-28 | | Lost |
| 919 | 898 | 53% | 2017-09-21 | | Won |
| 1116 | 1000 | 66% | 2017-06-24 | | Lost |
| 880 | 1076 | 24% | 2017-06-24 | | Lost |
| 1219 | 969 | 81% | 2017-05-05 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1002 | 50% | 2015-11-29 | | Won |
| 1159 | 1000 | 71% | 2015-07-01 | | Tied |
| 1062 | 1098 | 45% | 2015-05-02 | | Lost |
| 1133 | 1049 | 62% | 2014-11-16 | | Won |
| 1126 | 976 | 70% | 2014-09-27 | | Won |
| 1015 | 1000 | 52% | 2012-07-28 | | Won |
| 1088 | 1000 | 62% | 2012-07-09 | | Won |
| 1136 | 1000 | 69% | 2012-04-27 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1116 | 34% | 2012-03-31 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 983 | 52% | 2010-02-19 | | Lost |
| 941 | 1183 | 20% | 2009-01-22 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1233 | 21% | 2008-10-24 | | Lost |
| 1021 | 1233 | 23% | 2008-09-04 | | Lost |
| 973 | 1151 | 26% | 2006-03-26 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1242 | 20% | 2005-07-24 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 960 | 56% | 2005-03-10 | | Lost |
| 1131 | 1000 | 68% | 2005-01-07 | | Lost |
| 1141 | 999 | 69% | 2004-10-09 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1058 | 42% | 2004-10-01 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 907 | 63% | 2004-03-15 | | Won |
| 987 | 907 | 61% | 2004-01-01 | | Lost |
| 980 | 1141 | 28% | 2003-10-07 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1074 | 40% | 2002-03-10 | | Won |
| 1141 | 1000 | 69% | 2001-05-25 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1007 | 49% | 2000-06-03 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1150 | 30% | 2000-05-26 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1061 | 41% | 1999-10-30 | | Won |
| 1076 | 1000 | 61% | 1999-10-07 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1185 | 26% | 1999-10-03 | | Lost |
| 1183 | 1092 | 63% | 1999-09-01 | | Won |
| 1343 | 1000 | 88% | 1999-06-25 | | Won |
Attacking (26 wins) average ELOs: 1032.7 vs 1036.3 has a 49.49% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).