Strangers in a Strange Land
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 312 (55 on the archive and 257 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (French): 166
Defender wins (German): 145
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 908 | 908 | 50% | 2024-11-17 | Lost |
| 892 | 891 | 50% | 2024-04-21 | Won |
| 848 | 991 | 31% | 2022-08-31 | Won |
| 1092 | 1189 | 36% | 2021-06-16 | Lost |
| 800 | 914 | 34% | 2020-10-05 | Won |
| 1099 | 1099 | 50% | 2020-09-08 | Lost |
| 966 | 1108 | 31% | 2020-08-12 | Won |
| 935 | 864 | 60% | 2020-08-03 | Tied |
| 1031 | 1014 | 52% | 2020-05-09 | Lost |
| 1040 | 1092 | 43% | 2020-03-15 | Lost |
| 1138 | 1089 | 57% | 2020-03-07 | Won |
| 1132 | 1085 | 57% | 2020-03-07 | Won |
| 1132 | 1092 | 56% | 2020-03-05 | Won |
| 1036 | 1007 | 54% | 2020-02-28 | Won |
| 1111 | 1313 | 24% | 2018-09-05 | Lost |
| 1020 | 1020 | 50% | 2017-11-23 | Won |
| 898 | 914 | 48% | 2017-08-08 | Won |
| 1048 | 1038 | 51% | 2017-05-13 | Won |
| 956 | 896 | 59% | 2017-03-21 | Won |
| 896 | 956 | 41% | 2017-03-04 | Lost |
| 1094 | 1220 | 33% | 2016-12-07 | Lost |
| 986 | 1252 | 18% | 2015-11-16 | Won |
| 1060 | 949 | 65% | 2015-06-14 | Won |
| 927 | 1243 | 14% | 2015-03-07 | Lost |
| 1041 | 998 | 56% | 2014-08-02 | Won |
| 1062 | 1160 | 36% | 2014-06-01 | Lost |
| 1003 | 1026 | 47% | 2014-03-04 | Won |
| 1003 | 1026 | 47% | 2014-03-04 | Won |
| 986 | 1170 | 26% | 2012-10-07 | Won |
| 982 | 996 | 48% | 2012-09-23 | Lost |
| 1091 | 983 | 65% | 2012-08-10 | Lost |
| 1211 | 954 | 81% | 2012-08-04 | Won |
| 1093 | 1094 | 50% | 2011-10-09 | Won |
| 950 | 1003 | 42% | 2010-01-21 | Lost |
| 1060 | 1092 | 45% | 2009-11-27 | Won |
| 984 | 1060 | 39% | 2009-09-29 | Won |
| 992 | 1092 | 36% | 2009-02-26 | Lost |
| 1065 | 1228 | 28% | 2008-11-01 | Won |
| 1089 | 1060 | 54% | 2008-01-21 | Won |
| 1046 | 1059 | 48% | 2006-02-10 | Lost |
| 928 | 994 | 41% | 2004-09-19 | Won |
| 1108 | 1075 | 55% | 2004-09-19 | Lost |
| 1029 | 1055 | 46% | 2004-07-25 | Won |
| 1133 | 1046 | 62% | 2002-10-13 | Won |
| 983 | 828 | 71% | 2002-06-01 | Lost |
| 851 | 1057 | 23% | 2001-05-06 | Lost |
| 1122 | 1105 | 52% | 2001-01-26 | Lost |
| 1133 | 1083 | 57% | 2000-08-26 | Won |
| 976 | 948 | 54% | 1999-12-27 | Lost |
| 845 | 1048 | 24% | 1999-01-23 | Lost |
| 1105 | 856 | 81% | 1995-11-08 | Won |
| 1202 | 919 | 84% | 1993-10-01 | Won |
| 1075 | 954 | 67% | 1993-08-07 | Lost |
| 1079 | 1079 | 50% | | Lost |
| 1079 | 1079 | 50% | | Lost |
Attacking (30 wins) average ELOs: 1024.6 vs 1041.3 has a 47.59% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).