Half a Chance
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 60 (14 on the archive and 46 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (British): 11
Defender wins (Italian): 49
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 865 | 69% | 2024-05-18 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1119 | 34% | 2020-06-25 | | Lost |
| 1149 | 1170 | 47% | 2020-06-05 | | Lost |
| 966 | 1085 | 34% | 2019-03-20 | | Lost |
| 1102 | 1035 | 60% | 2015-11-10 | | Won |
| 1102 | 1035 | 60% | 2015-09-01 | | Lost |
| 1025 | 1129 | 35% | 2013-07-14 | | Lost |
| 1167 | 1000 | 72% | 2012-11-03 | | Won |
| 948 | 1000 | 43% | 2012-10-12 | | Lost |
| 946 | 1133 | 25% | 2000-08-15 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1133 | 32% | 2000-06-04 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1074 | 40% | 1998-09-10 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1054 | 42% | 1991-05-10 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1086 | 38% | | | Won |
Attacking (3 wins) average ELOs: 1028.9 vs 1065.6 has a 44.75% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).