First Dance
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 41 (13 on the archive and 28 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 22
Defender wins (French): 17
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 2
Attacker wins (German): 1
Defender wins (French): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1200 | 1200 | 50% | 2026-04-11 | Won |
| 1165 | 1228 | 41% | 2026-04-06 | Lost |
| 1205 | 1200 | 51% | 2026-03-26 | Won |
| 1165 | 1036 | 68% | 2026-03-21 | Lost |
| 1021 | 1110 | 37% | 2026-03-18 | Lost |
| 1131 | 1039 | 63% | 2026-03-13 | Won |
| 896 | 884 | 52% | 2026-03-08 | Won |
| 996 | 1253 | 19% | 2026-03-06 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1095 | 49% | 2026-02-20 | Lost |
| 1190 | 1052 | 69% | 2026-01-30 | Won |
| 1159 | 1180 | 47% | 2025-12-06 | Won |
| 1046 | 1046 | 50% | 2025-10-19 | Won |
| 982 | 945 | 55% | 2024-10-07 | Won |
Attacking (8 wins) average ELOs: 1095.7 vs 1097.5 has a 49.73% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).