First Dance
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 71 (24 on the archive and 51 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 33
Defender wins (French): 38
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 4
Attacker wins (German): 1
Defender wins (French): 3
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1050 | 1050 | 50% | 2026-10-08 | | Lost |
| 1054 | 1045 | 51% | 2026-10-03 | | Lost |
| 987 | 1234 | 19% | 2026-08-20 | | Lost |
| 904 | 967 | 41% | 2026-08-18 | | Lost |
| 1283 | 1170 | 66% | 2026-08-10 | | Lost |
| 1009 | 1014 | 49% | 2026-08-01 | | Lost |
| 1170 | 1000 | 73% | 2026-07-24 | | Lost |
| 1058 | 1000 | 58% | 2026-07-03 | A | Lost |
| 1058 | 1001 | 58% | 2026-07-03 | A | Lost |
| 1209 | 1000 | 77% | 2026-06-28 | | Won |
| 933 | 1017 | 38% | 2026-05-01 | | Won |
| 1133 | 1000 | 68% | 2026-04-11 | A | Won |
| 1208 | 1228 | 47% | 2026-04-06 | | Lost |
| 1201 | 1000 | 76% | 2026-03-26 | | Won |
| 1208 | 1027 | 74% | 2026-03-21 | | Lost |
| 1029 | 1136 | 35% | 2026-03-18 | | Lost |
| 1064 | 1095 | 46% | 2026-03-13 | | Won |
| 922 | 940 | 47% | 2026-03-08 | | Won |
| 953 | 1253 | 15% | 2026-03-06 | A | Lost |
| 1000 | 1149 | 30% | 2026-02-20 | | Lost |
| 1209 | 1069 | 69% | 2026-01-30 | | Won |
| 1167 | 1021 | 70% | 2025-12-06 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1066 | 41% | 2025-10-19 | | Won |
| 952 | 1000 | 43% | 2024-10-07 | | Won |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1073.4 vs 1061.8 has a 51.67% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).