Gavin Take
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 20
Attacker wins (American): 11
Defender wins (German): 8
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (American): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1010 | 1032 | 47% | 2026-07-20 | Won |
| 1082 | 1082 | 50% | 2026-07-14 | Won |
| 1143 | 1152 | 49% | 2026-06-07 | Lost |
| 950 | 1084 | 32% | 2026-05-31 | Won |
| 969 | 969 | 50% | 2026-05-13 | Won |
| 969 | 969 | 50% | 2026-05-06 | Lost |
| 1011 | 837 | 73% | 2026-04-26 | Lost |
| 1000 | 869 | 68% | 2026-04-10 | Won |
| 1036 | 1036 | 50% | 2026-04-06 | Lost |
| 1011 | 959 | 57% | 2026-02-26 | Won |
| 1078 | 1078 | 50% | 2026-02-19 | Won |
| 959 | 1070 | 35% | 2026-02-16 | Lost |
| 1123 | 975 | 70% | 2026-02-16 | Lost |
| 971 | 1218 | 19% | 2026-01-07 | Lost |
| 1218 | 910 | 85% | 2026-01-07 | Won |
| 932 | 946 | 48% | 2025-09-13 | Won |
| 952 | 1156 | 24% | 2025-09-11 | Lost |
| 1037 | 999 | 55% | 2025-08-26 | Won |
| 975 | 1028 | 42% | 2025-08-24 | Won |
| 1013 | 986 | 54% | 2025-08-13 | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1022 vs 1017.8 has a 50.6% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).