Polka's Dance
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 18 (9 on the archive and 9 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 6
Defender wins (French): 12
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 888 | 919 | 46% | 2026-03-14 | Lost |
| 1174 | 902 | 83% | 2025-10-17 | Won |
| 1055 | 1055 | 50% | 2025-10-11 | Won |
| 934 | 1063 | 32% | 2025-10-04 | Lost |
| 892 | 892 | 50% | 2025-05-27 | Lost |
| 1198 | 968 | 79% | 2025-05-08 | Won |
| 780 | 999 | 22% | 2025-05-01 | Lost |
| 878 | 1052 | 27% | 2025-04-14 | Lost |
| 934 | 1063 | 32% | 2025-03-23 | Lost |
Attacking (3 wins) average ELOs: 970.3 vs 990.3 has a 47.12% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).