Buckley's Chance
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 11
Attacker wins (Japanese): 5
Defender wins (Australian): 6
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1051 | 1137 | 38% | 2025-12-15 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 902 | 64% | 2025-04-26 | | Lost |
| 1051 | 1000 | 57% | 2024-03-01 | | Won |
| 1051 | 944 | 65% | 2024-01-27 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1022 | 47% | 2024-01-07 | | Won |
| 1063 | 1034 | 54% | 2023-12-02 | | Lost |
| 929 | 891 | 55% | 2023-12-02 | | Won |
| 1002 | 1263 | 18% | 2023-11-11 | | Lost |
| 1100 | 1079 | 53% | 2023-11-04 | | Lost |
| 1045 | 1180 | 31% | 2023-09-07 | | Won |
| 1205 | 1000 | 76% | 2023-08-20 | | Lost |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1045.2 vs 1041.1 has a 50.59% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).