Kawaguchi's Gamble
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 52 (29 on the archive and 24 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 21
Defender wins (American (USMC)): 29
With balance for both players:
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Japanese): 0
Defender wins (American (USMC)): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2025-08-19 | A+D | Lost |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2024-05-04 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2023-12-10 | | Tied |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2023-06-24 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 960 | 56% | 2022-12-22 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 960 | 56% | 2022-11-16 | | Won |
| 960 | 1000 | 44% | 2022-11-13 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 960 | 56% | 2022-10-24 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2022-09-03 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2022-01-02 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2021-10-31 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2021-07-11 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2021-06-25 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2021-01-30 | | Tied |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2021-01-09 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2020-11-25 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2020-11-15 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1051 | 43% | 2020-08-09 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2020-05-21 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2020-05-19 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2020-04-21 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2020-03-26 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2020-03-12 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2020-02-15 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2020-01-31 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2020-01-24 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1036 | 45% | 2020-01-10 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2019-12-14 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2019-07-28 | | Lost |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 998.6 vs 998.9 has a 49.97% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).