A Fine Mess...
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 58 (23 on the archive and 35 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (French): 28
Defender wins (German): 28
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (French): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1056 | 1007 | 57% | 2025-11-08 | Won |
| 1026 | 910 | 66% | 2025-04-25 | Won |
| 950 | 973 | 47% | 2025-04-25 | Lost |
| 1014 | 1056 | 44% | 2025-04-25 | Won |
| 878 | 1153 | 17% | 2023-11-03 | Won |
| 1110 | 919 | 75% | 2023-11-03 | Won |
| 1032 | 772 | 82% | 2023-10-30 | Won |
| 878 | 1103 | 21% | 2023-10-07 | Won |
| 1229 | 1263 | 45% | 2023-03-01 | Lost |
| 1218 | 891 | 87% | 2022-06-01 | Lost |
| 989 | 1342 | 12% | 2022-03-26 | Lost |
| 1087 | 878 | 77% | 2021-11-13 | Lost |
| 1097 | 1173 | 39% | 2021-11-06 | Lost |
| 1038 | 973 | 59% | 2020-12-12 | Tied |
| 1032 | 1065 | 45% | 2020-10-09 | Lost |
| 1174 | 1186 | 48% | 2020-04-17 | Won |
| 946 | 1110 | 28% | 2020-04-02 | Lost |
| 1256 | 933 | 87% | 2020-03-20 | Lost |
| 1080 | 1043 | 55% | 2020-02-01 | Lost |
| 1157 | 1253 | 37% | 2020-01-24 | Lost |
| 977 | 1024 | 43% | 2019-12-05 | Lost |
| 1124 | 1032 | 63% | 2019-08-02 | Won |
| 1263 | 1002 | 82% | 2019-05-07 | Won |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1070 vs 1046.1 has a 53.44% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).