A Fine Mess...
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 54 (20 on the archive and 34 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (French): 26
Defender wins (German): 26
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (French): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 951 | 911 | 56% | 2025-04-25 | Won |
| 916 | 980 | 41% | 2025-04-25 | Lost |
| 1015 | 1056 | 44% | 2025-04-25 | Won |
| 927 | 1148 | 22% | 2023-11-03 | Won |
| 1151 | 918 | 79% | 2023-11-03 | Won |
| 1028 | 779 | 81% | 2023-10-30 | Won |
| 927 | 1106 | 26% | 2023-10-07 | Won |
| 1185 | 889 | 85% | 2022-06-01 | Lost |
| 989 | 1330 | 12% | 2022-03-26 | Lost |
| 1095 | 927 | 72% | 2021-11-13 | Lost |
| 1105 | 1127 | 47% | 2021-11-06 | Lost |
| 1006 | 989 | 52% | 2020-12-12 | Tied |
| 1028 | 1056 | 46% | 2020-10-09 | Lost |
| 1142 | 1210 | 40% | 2020-04-17 | Won |
| 953 | 1151 | 24% | 2020-04-02 | Lost |
| 1263 | 1010 | 81% | 2020-03-20 | Lost |
| 1079 | 1043 | 55% | 2020-02-01 | Lost |
| 1096 | 1333 | 20% | 2020-01-24 | Lost |
| 977 | 1051 | 40% | 2019-12-05 | Lost |
| 1110 | 1028 | 62% | 2019-08-02 | Won |
Attacking (8 wins) average ELOs: 1047.2 vs 1052.1 has a 49.29% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).