Crickets in Spring
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 113 (27 on the archive and 86 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 60
Defender wins (Russian): 53
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 948 | 999 | 43% | 2023-12-04 | Won |
| 875 | 1051 | 27% | 2023-11-19 | Lost |
| 923 | 1084 | 28% | 2021-05-04 | Lost |
| 999 | 1011 | 48% | 2021-03-03 | Lost |
| 986 | 977 | 51% | 2020-06-18 | Won |
| 882 | 1083 | 24% | 2020-04-07 | Lost |
| 1053 | 994 | 58% | 2020-03-15 | Lost |
| 1074 | 1074 | 50% | 2019-11-05 | Lost |
| 982 | 977 | 51% | 2019-04-20 | Won |
| 1191 | 999 | 75% | 2018-11-24 | Lost |
| 1047 | 1065 | 47% | 2018-10-01 | Lost |
| 1191 | 1098 | 63% | 2018-08-15 | Lost |
| 1160 | 1259 | 36% | 2018-06-30 | Lost |
| 1150 | 999 | 70% | 2018-04-16 | Lost |
| 1139 | 1019 | 67% | 2018-02-18 | Won |
| 1223 | 1184 | 56% | 2018-02-03 | Won |
| 1242 | 1154 | 62% | 2018-01-28 | Won |
| 1003 | 1209 | 23% | 2018-01-13 | Lost |
| 1018 | 978 | 56% | 2017-12-05 | Won |
| 1086 | 1116 | 46% | 2017-12-03 | Won |
| 1116 | 1106 | 51% | 2017-12-02 | Lost |
| 1082 | 1310 | 21% | 2017-11-29 | Lost |
| 998 | 940 | 58% | 2017-10-21 | Won |
| 1069 | 1014 | 58% | 2017-10-14 | Won |
| 1184 | 1259 | 39% | 2017-10-08 | Won |
| 982 | 982 | 50% | 2017-10-03 | Lost |
| 967 | 1140 | 27% | 2017-01-25 | Lost |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1058.1 vs 1077.1 has a 47.28% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).