The Cost of Non-Compliance
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 70 (24 on the archive and 46 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 25
Defender wins (German): 44
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1073 | 1131 | 42% | 2026-01-10 | | Lost |
| 1289 | 974 | 86% | 2025-11-29 | | Won |
| 949 | 1000 | 43% | 2024-11-21 | | Lost |
| 1127 | 1151 | 47% | 2024-10-27 | | Tied |
| 1053 | 1000 | 58% | 2024-06-13 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1167 | 28% | 2021-12-27 | | Won |
| 973 | 1315 | 12% | 2021-05-16 | | Lost |
| 979 | 1000 | 47% | 2021-03-13 | | Won |
| 1064 | 1064 | 50% | 2021-02-04 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 992 | 51% | 2019-04-21 | | Won |
| 1147 | 992 | 71% | 2018-10-05 | | Won |
| 992 | 1134 | 31% | 2018-02-17 | | Lost |
| 992 | 1134 | 31% | 2018-02-17 | | Lost |
| 1169 | 1022 | 70% | 2017-11-07 | | Lost |
| 1008 | 1051 | 44% | 2017-08-12 | | Lost |
| 1008 | 1051 | 44% | 2017-07-22 | | Won |
| 1008 | 1051 | 44% | 2017-07-19 | | Lost |
| 1226 | 1000 | 79% | 2017-05-06 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1088 | 38% | 2017-03-26 | | Lost |
| 862 | 1133 | 17% | 2017-03-25 | | Lost |
| 1073 | 1034 | 56% | 2017-03-18 | | Lost |
| 1219 | 1000 | 78% | 2017-03-12 | | Lost |
| 1138 | 1069 | 60% | 2017-02-19 | | Lost |
| 1056 | 1156 | 36% | 2017-01-13 | | Won |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1058.5 vs 1071.2 has a 48.18% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).