Raff's Rules
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 139 (35 on the archive and 104 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 66
Defender wins (German): 72
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 953 | 960 | 49% | 2025-03-09 | Won |
| 900 | 951 | 43% | 2025-03-07 | Won |
| 930 | 1006 | 39% | 2025-02-28 | Won |
| 940 | 1082 | 31% | 2023-10-01 | Won |
| 1185 | 991 | 75% | 2023-03-26 | Lost |
| 1333 | 1059 | 83% | 2022-06-09 | Tied |
| 1127 | 949 | 74% | 2022-04-23 | Won |
| 866 | 918 | 43% | 2022-04-01 | Lost |
| 1292 | 1028 | 82% | 2021-11-19 | Won |
| 1139 | 954 | 74% | 2021-11-19 | Lost |
| 1019 | 932 | 62% | 2021-07-12 | Lost |
| 1087 | 1139 | 43% | 2021-05-06 | Lost |
| 1028 | 1165 | 31% | 2020-11-27 | Lost |
| 1075 | 1256 | 26% | 2020-06-17 | Lost |
| 1089 | 1014 | 61% | 2020-06-06 | Lost |
| 1051 | 954 | 64% | 2019-10-10 | Won |
| 1019 | 1057 | 45% | 2018-12-01 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1089 | 46% | 2018-11-24 | Won |
| 1152 | 1066 | 62% | 2018-11-04 | Won |
| 1123 | 1151 | 46% | 2018-10-22 | Won |
| 1106 | 968 | 69% | 2018-10-04 | Won |
| 1333 | 985 | 88% | 2018-06-23 | Lost |
| 1040 | 947 | 63% | 2018-04-08 | Lost |
| 846 | 875 | 46% | 2018-03-24 | Won |
| 1152 | 713 | 93% | 2018-03-19 | Won |
| 1141 | 1208 | 40% | 2018-02-13 | Lost |
| 1203 | 861 | 88% | 2017-12-02 | Won |
| 1084 | 982 | 64% | 2017-11-03 | Lost |
| 1020 | 983 | 55% | 2017-10-28 | Won |
| 1051 | 967 | 62% | 2017-10-24 | Lost |
| 1051 | 1065 | 48% | 2017-10-21 | Won |
| 951 | 1106 | 29% | 2017-10-05 | Lost |
| 1039 | 992 | 57% | 2017-10-05 | Lost |
| 951 | 1032 | 39% | 2017-05-27 | Lost |
| 1185 | 991 | 75% | 2017-05-07 | Won |
Attacking (17 wins) average ELOs: 1072 vs 1011.3 has a 58.64% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).