The Haunted Castle
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 108 (33 on the archive and 75 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian (NKVD)): 70
Defender wins (German): 38
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 910 | 928 | 47% | 2025-08-12 | Won |
| 938 | 1084 | 30% | 2025-01-25 | Won |
| 972 | 1050 | 39% | 2023-06-22 | Won |
| 1031 | 939 | 63% | 2022-03-20 | Won |
| 866 | 928 | 41% | 2021-08-17 | Won |
| 1138 | 1021 | 66% | 2020-12-04 | Won |
| 1172 | 1035 | 69% | 2020-10-10 | Won |
| 1080 | 1203 | 33% | 2020-04-25 | Lost |
| 1021 | 1029 | 49% | 2020-04-14 | Lost |
| 1077 | 755 | 86% | 2019-06-22 | Won |
| 982 | 1146 | 28% | 2019-06-02 | Lost |
| 961 | 1216 | 19% | 2018-11-13 | Lost |
| 1120 | 1023 | 64% | 2018-10-05 | Won |
| 925 | 992 | 40% | 2018-09-14 | Won |
| 1152 | 1031 | 67% | 2018-02-17 | Won |
| 1055 | 1099 | 44% | 2017-10-15 | Lost |
| 949 | 1077 | 32% | 2017-10-04 | Lost |
| 898 | 893 | 51% | 2017-08-05 | Won |
| 1020 | 963 | 58% | 2017-08-05 | Won |
| 1161 | 1119 | 56% | 2017-06-10 | Won |
| 1219 | 941 | 83% | 2017-05-07 | Won |
| 1263 | 1116 | 70% | 2017-04-22 | Lost |
| 1081 | 1146 | 41% | 2017-04-07 | Won |
| 1176 | 1021 | 71% | 2017-04-07 | Won |
| 1142 | 1077 | 59% | 2017-03-19 | Won |
| 1182 | 1139 | 56% | 2017-03-18 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2017-03-12 | Lost |
| 969 | 995 | 46% | 2017-03-05 | Won |
| 940 | 927 | 52% | 2017-02-28 | Lost |
| 1016 | 907 | 65% | 2017-02-26 | Lost |
| 1227 | 1156 | 60% | 2017-02-19 | Won |
| 1000 | 1047 | 43% | 2017-02-12 | Won |
| 1038 | 1029 | 51% | 2017-01-13 | Won |
Attacking (23 wins) average ELOs: 1053.6 vs 1033.9 has a 52.83% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).