A Real Barn Burner
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 233 (75 on the archive and 158 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (French): 135
Defender wins (German): 98
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 984 | 1019 | 45% | 2025-11-10 | Won |
| 977 | 1163 | 26% | 2025-09-15 | Won |
| 1004 | 1037 | 45% | 2025-08-09 | Lost |
| 993 | 1150 | 29% | 2025-08-07 | Lost |
| 1078 | 991 | 62% | 2025-05-10 | Won |
| 974 | 962 | 52% | 2025-04-15 | Lost |
| 1026 | 1026 | 50% | 2023-11-09 | Won |
| 964 | 919 | 56% | 2023-01-21 | Won |
| 964 | 919 | 56% | 2023-01-21 | Won |
| 1001 | 1030 | 46% | 2022-08-15 | Won |
| 1018 | 1431 | 8% | 2022-06-15 | Won |
| 944 | 1089 | 30% | 2022-06-14 | Won |
| 909 | 1051 | 31% | 2022-04-10 | Lost |
| 977 | 977 | 50% | 2022-01-17 | Won |
| 998 | 1027 | 46% | 2021-08-19 | Lost |
| 1175 | 1057 | 66% | 2021-03-09 | Won |
| 991 | 986 | 51% | 2021-03-09 | Lost |
| 1028 | 986 | 56% | 2021-03-07 | Won |
| 1077 | 1125 | 43% | 2021-02-06 | Lost |
| 865 | 888 | 47% | 2021-01-12 | Lost |
| 1108 | 1121 | 48% | 2020-11-03 | Lost |
| 982 | 931 | 57% | 2020-10-30 | Won |
| 1087 | 940 | 70% | 2020-10-25 | Won |
| 1066 | 1066 | 50% | 2020-09-30 | Lost |
| 1172 | 1035 | 69% | 2020-09-12 | Won |
| 1049 | 1052 | 50% | 2020-07-18 | Lost |
| 1080 | 1190 | 35% | 2020-04-12 | Won |
| 986 | 1131 | 30% | 2020-02-12 | Lost |
| 969 | 989 | 47% | 2020-02-11 | Won |
| 1140 | 1347 | 23% | 2019-11-10 | Lost |
| 1016 | 989 | 54% | 2019-10-12 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1052 | 51% | 2019-10-11 | Won |
| 964 | 967 | 50% | 2019-07-20 | Won |
| 995 | 1129 | 32% | 2019-05-05 | Won |
| 1040 | 905 | 69% | 2018-12-29 | Lost |
| 1120 | 1216 | 37% | 2018-12-14 | Won |
| 1142 | 1101 | 56% | 2018-09-29 | Won |
| 1113 | 965 | 70% | 2018-05-27 | Lost |
| 957 | 942 | 52% | 2018-05-26 | Won |
| 972 | 972 | 50% | 2018-05-24 | Won |
| 1140 | 753 | 90% | 2018-05-22 | Won |
| 962 | 1129 | 28% | 2018-03-25 | Lost |
| 1120 | 1216 | 37% | 2018-03-03 | Won |
| 1162 | 964 | 76% | 2017-12-03 | Won |
| 1001 | 971 | 54% | 2017-11-18 | Lost |
| 1138 | 1263 | 33% | 2017-10-07 | Lost |
| 1015 | 982 | 55% | 2017-10-06 | Won |
| 1065 | 998 | 60% | 2017-10-06 | Won |
| 982 | 1033 | 43% | 2017-10-05 | Won |
| 1076 | 1217 | 31% | 2017-10-04 | Lost |
| 928 | 1151 | 22% | 2017-09-07 | Won |
| 1251 | 1225 | 54% | 2017-09-02 | Lost |
| 1231 | 862 | 89% | 2017-09-01 | Won |
| 968 | 1153 | 26% | 2017-08-11 | Won |
| 986 | 879 | 65% | 2017-07-22 | Won |
| 1140 | 1208 | 40% | 2017-06-25 | Lost |
| 906 | 885 | 53% | 2017-06-25 | Won |
| 932 | 1172 | 20% | 2017-05-22 | Lost |
| 1129 | 1022 | 65% | 2017-04-24 | Lost |
| 1040 | 964 | 61% | 2017-04-18 | Won |
| 1225 | 874 | 88% | 2017-04-08 | Won |
| 1142 | 1226 | 38% | 2017-04-08 | Lost |
| 1007 | 1029 | 47% | 2017-04-08 | Won |
| 1143 | 1238 | 37% | 2017-03-17 | Lost |
| 1434 | 1019 | 92% | 2017-03-11 | Won |
| 1060 | 1217 | 29% | 2017-03-10 | Won |
| 1110 | 1003 | 65% | 2017-03-05 | Won |
| 1023 | 992 | 54% | 2017-03-04 | Won |
| 1023 | 992 | 54% | 2017-03-04 | Won |
| 958 | 1050 | 37% | 2017-02-20 | Lost |
| 951 | 968 | 48% | 2017-02-16 | Lost |
| 986 | 904 | 62% | 2017-01-14 | Won |
| 1018 | 1120 | 36% | 2017-01-14 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1120 | 41% | 2017-01-14 | Lost |
| 1013 | 1091 | 39% | Won |
Attacking (45 wins) average ELOs: 1043.8 vs 1050.2 has a 49.08% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).