A Real Barn Burner
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 215 (65 on the archive and 150 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (French): 103
Defender wins (German): 112
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 923 | 919 | 51% | 2023-01-21 | Won |
| 923 | 919 | 51% | 2023-01-21 | Won |
| 1003 | 1030 | 46% | 2022-08-15 | Won |
| 1018 | 1431 | 8% | 2022-06-15 | Won |
| 923 | 936 | 48% | 2022-06-14 | Won |
| 939 | 1051 | 34% | 2022-04-10 | Lost |
| 977 | 977 | 50% | 2022-01-17 | Won |
| 1074 | 999 | 61% | 2021-08-19 | Lost |
| 992 | 999 | 49% | 2021-03-09 | Lost |
| 1166 | 1062 | 65% | 2021-03-09 | Won |
| 1048 | 999 | 57% | 2021-03-07 | Won |
| 1051 | 1065 | 48% | 2021-02-06 | Lost |
| 867 | 882 | 48% | 2021-01-12 | Lost |
| 1130 | 1116 | 52% | 2020-11-03 | Lost |
| 986 | 1007 | 47% | 2020-10-30 | Won |
| 1013 | 1164 | 30% | 2020-10-25 | Won |
| 1012 | 1012 | 50% | 2020-09-30 | Lost |
| 1165 | 1023 | 69% | 2020-09-12 | Won |
| 1049 | 1052 | 50% | 2020-07-18 | Lost |
| 999 | 1191 | 25% | 2020-02-12 | Lost |
| 1053 | 977 | 61% | 2020-02-11 | Won |
| 1016 | 977 | 56% | 2019-10-12 | Lost |
| 1093 | 1023 | 60% | 2019-10-11 | Won |
| 923 | 967 | 44% | 2019-07-20 | Won |
| 987 | 982 | 51% | 2019-05-05 | Won |
| 1046 | 905 | 69% | 2018-12-29 | Lost |
| 1112 | 1211 | 36% | 2018-12-14 | Won |
| 1108 | 1101 | 51% | 2018-09-29 | Won |
| 1126 | 979 | 70% | 2018-05-27 | Lost |
| 958 | 926 | 55% | 2018-05-26 | Won |
| 972 | 972 | 50% | 2018-05-24 | Won |
| 962 | 982 | 47% | 2018-03-25 | Lost |
| 1112 | 1211 | 36% | 2018-03-03 | Won |
| 1138 | 923 | 78% | 2017-12-03 | Won |
| 1001 | 1003 | 50% | 2017-11-18 | Lost |
| 1069 | 1083 | 48% | 2017-10-06 | Won |
| 1019 | 981 | 55% | 2017-10-06 | Won |
| 981 | 1037 | 42% | 2017-10-05 | Won |
| 1060 | 1214 | 29% | 2017-10-04 | Lost |
| 978 | 1018 | 44% | 2017-09-07 | Won |
| 1247 | 1250 | 50% | 2017-09-02 | Lost |
| 1310 | 917 | 91% | 2017-09-01 | Won |
| 1084 | 1119 | 45% | 2017-08-11 | Won |
| 999 | 881 | 66% | 2017-07-22 | Won |
| 1106 | 1151 | 44% | 2017-06-25 | Lost |
| 907 | 954 | 43% | 2017-06-25 | Won |
| 932 | 1127 | 25% | 2017-05-22 | Lost |
| 982 | 1045 | 41% | 2017-04-24 | Lost |
| 1070 | 923 | 70% | 2017-04-18 | Won |
| 1142 | 1223 | 39% | 2017-04-08 | Lost |
| 1250 | 873 | 90% | 2017-04-08 | Won |
| 1065 | 1029 | 55% | 2017-04-08 | Won |
| 1150 | 999 | 70% | 2017-04-07 | Lost |
| 1130 | 1259 | 32% | 2017-03-17 | Lost |
| 1400 | 1011 | 90% | 2017-03-11 | Won |
| 1056 | 1214 | 29% | 2017-03-10 | Won |
| 1075 | 1047 | 54% | 2017-03-05 | Won |
| 998 | 940 | 58% | 2017-03-04 | Won |
| 998 | 940 | 58% | 2017-03-04 | Won |
| 958 | 1045 | 38% | 2017-02-20 | Lost |
| 949 | 1084 | 31% | 2017-02-16 | Lost |
| 1016 | 1100 | 38% | 2017-01-14 | Lost |
| 1045 | 1100 | 42% | 2017-01-14 | Lost |
| 994 | 903 | 63% | 2017-01-14 | Won |
| 1012 | 1164 | 29% | | Won |
Attacking (39 wins) average ELOs: 1043.8 vs 1040.1 has a 50.54% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).