Operation Blackwater
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 57 (17 on the archive and 40 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (British): 29
Defender wins (German): 28
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 987 | 1136 | 30% | 2025-04-05 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1342 | 12% | 2024-10-10 | Lost |
| 1046 | 1083 | 45% | 2024-03-15 | Lost |
| 1053 | 1189 | 31% | 2024-03-15 | Lost |
| 1186 | 1256 | 40% | 2024-03-12 | Lost |
| 1042 | 1064 | 47% | 2023-11-17 | Lost |
| 995 | 1176 | 26% | 2022-11-11 | Lost |
| 1029 | 780 | 81% | 2020-06-03 | Lost |
| 1153 | 1025 | 68% | 2017-12-01 | Won |
| 1232 | 1068 | 72% | 2017-11-01 | Lost |
| 1018 | 1117 | 36% | 2017-10-07 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1117 | 41% | 2017-10-07 | Lost |
| 1070 | 982 | 62% | 2017-08-25 | Won |
| 1067 | 1131 | 41% | 2017-03-09 | Lost |
| 950 | 1027 | 39% | 2017-03-02 | Won |
| 1252 | 1303 | 43% | 2016-11-25 | Won |
| 1188 | 1043 | 70% | 2016-10-08 | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1077.9 vs 1108.2 has a 45.65% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).