Operation Blackwater
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 54 (16 on the archive and 38 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (British): 27
Defender wins (German): 27
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1084 | 1273 | 25% | 2024-10-10 | Lost |
| 1247 | 986 | 82% | 2024-03-15 | Lost |
| 1185 | 1179 | 51% | 2024-03-15 | Lost |
| 1260 | 1259 | 50% | 2024-03-12 | Lost |
| 1048 | 1063 | 48% | 2023-11-17 | Lost |
| 998 | 1124 | 33% | 2022-11-11 | Lost |
| 1031 | 718 | 86% | 2020-06-03 | Lost |
| 1119 | 930 | 75% | 2017-12-01 | Won |
| 1133 | 1002 | 68% | 2017-11-01 | Lost |
| 1016 | 982 | 55% | 2017-10-07 | Lost |
| 1044 | 982 | 59% | 2017-10-07 | Lost |
| 1016 | 980 | 55% | 2017-08-25 | Won |
| 1016 | 1190 | 27% | 2017-03-09 | Lost |
| 993 | 987 | 51% | 2017-03-02 | Won |
| 1310 | 1275 | 55% | 2016-11-25 | Won |
| 880 | 1033 | 29% | 2016-10-08 | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1086.3 vs 1060.2 has a 53.74% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).