Operation Blackwater
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 57 (17 on the archive and 40 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (British): 29
Defender wins (German): 28
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 987 | 1135 | 30% | 2025-04-05 | Lost |
| 1035 | 1341 | 15% | 2024-10-10 | Lost |
| 1243 | 1041 | 76% | 2024-03-15 | Lost |
| 1153 | 1137 | 52% | 2024-03-15 | Lost |
| 1216 | 1254 | 45% | 2024-03-12 | Lost |
| 1109 | 1063 | 57% | 2023-11-17 | Lost |
| 988 | 1186 | 24% | 2022-11-11 | Lost |
| 1029 | 779 | 81% | 2020-06-03 | Lost |
| 1153 | 958 | 75% | 2017-12-01 | Won |
| 1226 | 1038 | 75% | 2017-11-01 | Lost |
| 1022 | 1078 | 42% | 2017-10-07 | Lost |
| 1054 | 1078 | 47% | 2017-10-07 | Lost |
| 1030 | 1041 | 48% | 2017-08-25 | Won |
| 1042 | 1117 | 39% | 2017-03-09 | Lost |
| 1031 | 1011 | 53% | 2017-03-02 | Won |
| 1340 | 1266 | 60% | 2016-11-25 | Won |
| 1188 | 1043 | 70% | 2016-10-08 | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1108.6 vs 1092.1 has a 52.37% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).