Gavin Take
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 33
Attacker wins (American): 17
Defender wins (German): 14
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 2
Attacker wins (American): 1
Defender wins (German): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 944 | 944 | 50% | 2025-09-11 | Won |
| 946 | 1107 | 28% | 2025-07-15 | Lost |
| 984 | 984 | 50% | 2025-04-14 | Won |
| 1000 | 1038 | 45% | 2025-01-17 | Won |
| 1125 | 1012 | 66% | 2024-08-07 | Lost |
| 1053 | 1040 | 52% | 2024-05-03 | Won |
| 1026 | 1050 | 47% | 2024-04-04 | Won |
| 1008 | 1107 | 36% | 2024-01-06 | Won |
| 1116 | 1152 | 45% | 2024-01-04 | Lost |
| 1015 | 989 | 54% | 2023-06-17 | Lost |
| 1096 | 970 | 67% | 2022-12-11 | Won |
| 1026 | 1035 | 49% | 2022-08-28 | Won |
| 959 | 1026 | 40% | 2022-08-13 | Lost |
| 881 | 969 | 38% | 2022-08-05 | Lost |
| 1026 | 943 | 62% | 2022-05-15 | Won |
| 898 | 927 | 46% | 2021-06-18 | Lost |
| 986 | 1013 | 46% | 2021-04-10 | Won |
| 939 | 951 | 48% | 2020-12-13 | Won |
| 1144 | 1163 | 47% | 2020-10-21 | Lost |
| 1427 | 1431 | 49% | 2020-09-04 | Lost |
| 892 | 971 | 39% | 2020-04-19 | Won |
| 1175 | 1173 | 50% | 2019-11-06 | Lost |
| 1174 | 1107 | 60% | 2019-03-05 | Won |
| 979 | 1109 | 32% | 2019-02-26 | Lost |
| 1035 | 1203 | 28% | 2018-05-17 | Lost |
| 886 | 893 | 49% | 2018-02-12 | Won |
| 1203 | 1117 | 62% | 2017-11-05 | Won |
| 1096 | 1044 | 57% | 2017-10-02 | Won |
| 1008 | 1226 | 22% | 2017-09-21 | Won |
| 951 | 1020 | 40% | 2017-04-29 | Won |
| 904 | 949 | 44% | 2017-03-03 | Lost |
| 893 | 1019 | 33% | 2017-01-29 | Lost |
| 1090 | 1107 | 48% | 2016-10-29 | Lost |
Attacking (18 wins) average ELOs: 1026.8 vs 1054.2 has a 46.07% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).