Before the Blunder
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 117 (48 on the archive and 69 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 53
Defender wins (Polish): 64
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1088 | 942 | 70% | 2026-01-10 | Lost |
| 977 | 993 | 48% | 2025-12-02 | Won |
| 954 | 947 | 51% | 2024-12-31 | Lost |
| 1202 | 1107 | 63% | 2024-11-15 | Lost |
| 1035 | 1030 | 51% | 2024-11-15 | Lost |
| 1039 | 984 | 58% | 2024-11-14 | Won |
| 922 | 998 | 39% | 2024-11-14 | Won |
| 1028 | 1028 | 50% | 2024-04-22 | Won |
| 973 | 947 | 54% | 2024-04-09 | Won |
| 1225 | 987 | 80% | 2023-11-19 | Won |
| 969 | 1065 | 37% | 2023-10-09 | Lost |
| 1205 | 989 | 78% | 2023-09-19 | Lost |
| 1080 | 950 | 68% | 2023-03-25 | Lost |
| 1134 | 855 | 83% | 2023-03-19 | Lost |
| 1011 | 988 | 53% | 2023-03-14 | Lost |
| 987 | 987 | 50% | 2023-03-09 | Won |
| 947 | 883 | 59% | 2023-02-27 | Lost |
| 1263 | 1334 | 40% | 2023-02-10 | Lost |
| 1263 | 1228 | 55% | 2023-01-30 | Won |
| 924 | 1226 | 15% | 2022-11-11 | Lost |
| 1070 | 1017 | 58% | 2022-07-12 | Lost |
| 1166 | 1151 | 52% | 2022-02-25 | Lost |
| 1080 | 1203 | 33% | 2021-11-27 | Won |
| 1029 | 1113 | 38% | 2020-10-08 | Won |
| 993 | 1217 | 22% | 2020-06-30 | Lost |
| 863 | 924 | 41% | 2020-06-03 | Lost |
| 981 | 906 | 61% | 2020-05-01 | Lost |
| 972 | 1021 | 43% | 2019-11-18 | Lost |
| 1021 | 972 | 57% | 2019-09-11 | Won |
| 1217 | 1017 | 76% | 2019-05-12 | Won |
| 1097 | 1131 | 45% | 2019-02-09 | Won |
| 942 | 947 | 49% | 2018-12-29 | Lost |
| 1001 | 947 | 58% | 2018-12-29 | Lost |
| 914 | 991 | 39% | 2018-12-02 | Lost |
| 1116 | 1080 | 55% | 2018-11-16 | Won |
| 1058 | 1021 | 55% | 2018-04-27 | Won |
| 947 | 999 | 43% | 2017-09-17 | Lost |
| 902 | 986 | 38% | 2017-08-03 | Lost |
| 1123 | 986 | 69% | 2017-07-02 | Lost |
| 753 | 1140 | 10% | 2016-09-26 | Lost |
| 1231 | 943 | 84% | 2016-09-02 | Won |
| 918 | 1097 | 26% | 2016-08-13 | Lost |
| 987 | 1052 | 41% | 2016-08-05 | Lost |
| 1028 | 1143 | 34% | 2016-06-26 | Lost |
| 1203 | 1028 | 73% | 2016-04-13 | Lost |
| 939 | 1225 | 16% | 2016-03-28 | Lost |
| 1226 | 1136 | 63% | 2016-03-26 | Lost |
| 1091 | 1091 | 50% | | Won |
Attacking (17 wins) average ELOs: 1043.6 vs 1040.7 has a 50.43% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).