Before the Blunder
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 48
Attacker wins (German): 17
Defender wins (Polish): 31
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1089 | 943 | 70% | 2026-01-10 | | Lost |
| 977 | 993 | 48% | 2025-12-02 | | Won |
| 1000 | 966 | 55% | 2024-12-31 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1167 | 28% | 2024-11-15 | | Lost |
| 1017 | 1044 | 46% | 2024-11-15 | | Lost |
| 1063 | 987 | 61% | 2024-11-14 | | Won |
| 1000 | 977 | 53% | 2024-11-14 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1053 | 42% | 2024-04-22 | | Won |
| 973 | 966 | 51% | 2024-04-09 | | Won |
| 1281 | 984 | 85% | 2023-11-19 | | Won |
| 969 | 1000 | 46% | 2023-10-09 | | Lost |
| 1234 | 989 | 80% | 2023-09-19 | | Lost |
| 1080 | 950 | 68% | 2023-03-25 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 841 | 71% | 2023-03-19 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1019 | 47% | 2023-03-14 | | Lost |
| 987 | 984 | 50% | 2023-03-09 | | Won |
| 966 | 1000 | 45% | 2023-02-27 | | Lost |
| 1242 | 1000 | 80% | 2023-02-10 | | Lost |
| 1242 | 1000 | 80% | 2023-01-30 | | Won |
| 947 | 1226 | 17% | 2022-11-11 | | Lost |
| 1029 | 1018 | 52% | 2022-07-12 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1150 | 30% | 2022-02-25 | | Lost |
| 1080 | 1000 | 61% | 2021-11-27 | | Won |
| 1030 | 1097 | 40% | 2020-10-08 | | Won |
| 994 | 1218 | 22% | 2020-06-30 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 954 | 57% | 2020-06-03 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 896 | 65% | 2020-05-01 | | Lost |
| 1017 | 1000 | 52% | 2019-11-18 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1017 | 48% | 2019-09-11 | | Won |
| 1218 | 1018 | 76% | 2019-05-12 | | Won |
| 1056 | 1000 | 58% | 2019-02-09 | | Won |
| 943 | 966 | 47% | 2018-12-29 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 966 | 55% | 2018-12-29 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1008 | 49% | 2018-12-02 | | Lost |
| 1116 | 1080 | 55% | 2018-11-16 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1031 | 46% | 2018-04-27 | | Won |
| 966 | 1001 | 45% | 2017-09-17 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 952 | 57% | 2017-08-03 | | Lost |
| 1133 | 952 | 74% | 2017-07-02 | | Lost |
| 767 | 1141 | 10% | 2016-09-26 | | Lost |
| 1219 | 943 | 83% | 2016-09-02 | | Won |
| 918 | 1056 | 31% | 2016-08-13 | | Lost |
| 988 | 1099 | 35% | 2016-08-05 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1098 | 36% | 2016-06-26 | | Lost |
| 1226 | 1000 | 79% | 2016-04-13 | | Lost |
| 939 | 1281 | 12% | 2016-03-28 | | Lost |
| 1226 | 1000 | 79% | 2016-03-26 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1086 | 38% | | | Won |
Attacking (17 wins) average ELOs: 1040.3 vs 1023.3 has a 52.44% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).