Before the Blunder
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 112 (44 on the archive and 68 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 51
Defender wins (Polish): 61
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 956 | 896 | 59% | 2024-12-31 | Lost |
| 1061 | 1089 | 46% | 2024-11-15 | Lost |
| 998 | 1085 | 38% | 2024-11-15 | Lost |
| 1039 | 927 | 66% | 2024-11-14 | Won |
| 920 | 971 | 43% | 2024-11-14 | Won |
| 1124 | 1124 | 50% | 2024-04-22 | Won |
| 975 | 896 | 61% | 2024-04-09 | Won |
| 1252 | 996 | 81% | 2023-11-19 | Won |
| 1023 | 1065 | 44% | 2023-10-09 | Lost |
| 1170 | 979 | 75% | 2023-09-19 | Lost |
| 1013 | 950 | 59% | 2023-03-25 | Lost |
| 1141 | 889 | 81% | 2023-03-19 | Lost |
| 1011 | 1055 | 44% | 2023-03-14 | Lost |
| 987 | 996 | 49% | 2023-03-09 | Won |
| 896 | 885 | 52% | 2023-02-27 | Lost |
| 913 | 1170 | 19% | 2022-11-11 | Lost |
| 1095 | 1030 | 59% | 2022-07-12 | Lost |
| 1166 | 1100 | 59% | 2022-02-25 | Lost |
| 1013 | 1013 | 50% | 2021-11-27 | Won |
| 1066 | 1202 | 31% | 2020-10-08 | Won |
| 993 | 1220 | 21% | 2020-06-30 | Lost |
| 863 | 998 | 31% | 2020-06-03 | Lost |
| 981 | 920 | 59% | 2020-05-01 | Lost |
| 1040 | 1020 | 53% | 2019-11-18 | Lost |
| 1020 | 1040 | 47% | 2019-09-11 | Won |
| 1220 | 1030 | 75% | 2019-05-12 | Won |
| 1057 | 1119 | 41% | 2019-02-09 | Won |
| 926 | 896 | 54% | 2018-12-29 | Lost |
| 1000 | 896 | 65% | 2018-12-29 | Lost |
| 917 | 1001 | 38% | 2018-12-02 | Lost |
| 1100 | 1074 | 54% | 2018-11-16 | Won |
| 1058 | 1082 | 47% | 2018-04-27 | Won |
| 896 | 997 | 36% | 2017-09-17 | Lost |
| 902 | 1006 | 35% | 2017-08-03 | Lost |
| 1151 | 1006 | 70% | 2017-07-02 | Lost |
| 704 | 1148 | 7% | 2016-09-26 | Lost |
| 1313 | 948 | 89% | 2016-09-02 | Won |
| 923 | 1057 | 32% | 2016-08-13 | Lost |
| 988 | 1099 | 35% | 2016-08-05 | Lost |
| 1092 | 1132 | 44% | 2016-06-26 | Lost |
| 1189 | 1092 | 64% | 2016-04-13 | Lost |
| 939 | 1252 | 14% | 2016-03-28 | Lost |
| 1223 | 1136 | 62% | 2016-03-26 | Lost |
| 1079 | 1079 | 50% | | Won |
Attacking (15 wins) average ELOs: 1031.7 vs 1035.6 has a 49.43% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).