The Winter City
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 96 (40 on the archive and 56 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Slovak): 46
Defender wins (Polish): 50
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1039 | 1039 | 50% | 2026-06-10 | Lost |
| 993 | 977 | 52% | 2025-05-29 | Lost |
| 1070 | 1060 | 51% | 2025-05-19 | Lost |
| 1070 | 977 | 63% | 2025-05-19 | Lost |
| 977 | 1070 | 37% | 2025-05-01 | Lost |
| 1060 | 993 | 60% | 2025-04-24 | Lost |
| 977 | 993 | 48% | 2025-04-24 | Lost |
| 1105 | 988 | 66% | 2025-02-06 | Won |
| 1088 | 973 | 66% | 2025-01-06 | Won |
| 1030 | 1016 | 52% | 2024-05-17 | Won |
| 1048 | 1018 | 54% | 2024-03-02 | Won |
| 1236 | 900 | 87% | 2023-11-28 | Won |
| 1202 | 984 | 78% | 2023-11-18 | Lost |
| 987 | 987 | 50% | 2023-04-13 | Won |
| 1089 | 1095 | 49% | 2023-03-19 | Lost |
| 912 | 950 | 45% | 2023-03-18 | Won |
| 904 | 971 | 40% | 2021-07-22 | Won |
| 1068 | 1046 | 53% | 2021-05-24 | Lost |
| 1080 | 1190 | 35% | 2021-04-02 | Lost |
| 1044 | 1163 | 34% | 2021-02-10 | Won |
| 880 | 1004 | 33% | 2021-01-11 | Lost |
| 893 | 1006 | 34% | 2020-03-26 | Won |
| 1021 | 906 | 66% | 2020-03-17 | Won |
| 953 | 1052 | 36% | 2020-02-08 | Lost |
| 1065 | 1179 | 34% | 2019-10-30 | Won |
| 1151 | 1225 | 40% | 2019-08-17 | Won |
| 1014 | 1083 | 40% | 2019-05-13 | Lost |
| 1037 | 1135 | 36% | 2019-02-07 | Won |
| 1029 | 1113 | 38% | 2018-12-28 | Lost |
| 946 | 1113 | 28% | 2017-11-11 | Lost |
| 1080 | 1051 | 54% | 2017-10-15 | Won |
| 1123 | 986 | 69% | 2017-04-09 | Won |
| 1123 | 986 | 69% | 2017-04-09 | Won |
| 1123 | 986 | 69% | 2017-04-09 | Won |
| 1162 | 947 | 78% | 2017-04-01 | Won |
| 945 | 959 | 48% | 2016-11-16 | Won |
| 1230 | 945 | 84% | 2016-04-13 | Lost |
| 945 | 1143 | 24% | 2016-04-05 | Won |
| 1033 | 1097 | 41% | 2016-03-12 | Lost |
| 1017 | 1091 | 40% | | Won |
Attacking (22 wins) average ELOs: 1043.7 vs 1034.9 has a 51.27% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).