The Winter City
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 94 (38 on the archive and 56 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Slovak): 54
Defender wins (Polish): 40
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1028 | 991 | 55% | 2025-05-29 | Lost |
| 1085 | 1072 | 52% | 2025-05-19 | Lost |
| 991 | 1085 | 37% | 2025-05-01 | Lost |
| 991 | 1028 | 45% | 2025-04-24 | Lost |
| 1072 | 1028 | 56% | 2025-04-24 | Lost |
| 996 | 994 | 50% | 2025-02-06 | Won |
| 1143 | 1131 | 52% | 2025-01-06 | Won |
| 1030 | 1016 | 52% | 2024-05-17 | Won |
| 1084 | 1073 | 52% | 2024-03-02 | Won |
| 1141 | 922 | 78% | 2023-11-28 | Won |
| 945 | 934 | 52% | 2023-11-18 | Lost |
| 1018 | 987 | 54% | 2023-04-13 | Won |
| 1030 | 1087 | 42% | 2023-03-19 | Lost |
| 912 | 951 | 44% | 2023-03-18 | Won |
| 904 | 971 | 40% | 2021-07-22 | Won |
| 1054 | 1045 | 51% | 2021-05-24 | Lost |
| 1001 | 1014 | 48% | 2021-04-02 | Lost |
| 1044 | 1163 | 34% | 2021-02-10 | Won |
| 881 | 1004 | 33% | 2021-01-11 | Lost |
| 960 | 1004 | 44% | 2020-03-26 | Won |
| 1116 | 919 | 76% | 2020-03-17 | Won |
| 955 | 1140 | 26% | 2020-02-08 | Lost |
| 1061 | 1159 | 36% | 2019-10-30 | Won |
| 1153 | 1257 | 35% | 2019-08-17 | Won |
| 1009 | 1219 | 23% | 2019-05-13 | Lost |
| 1029 | 1116 | 38% | 2019-02-07 | Won |
| 1064 | 1248 | 26% | 2018-12-28 | Lost |
| 967 | 1248 | 17% | 2017-11-11 | Lost |
| 1075 | 1068 | 51% | 2017-10-15 | Won |
| 1157 | 1019 | 69% | 2017-04-09 | Won |
| 1157 | 1019 | 69% | 2017-04-09 | Won |
| 1157 | 1019 | 69% | 2017-04-09 | Won |
| 1137 | 903 | 79% | 2017-04-01 | Won |
| 1089 | 1008 | 61% | 2016-11-16 | Won |
| 1181 | 1161 | 53% | 2016-04-13 | Lost |
| 1161 | 1132 | 54% | 2016-04-05 | Won |
| 1032 | 1015 | 52% | 2016-03-12 | Lost |
| 1029 | 1117 | 38% | | Won |
Attacking (22 wins) average ELOs: 1048.4 vs 1059.7 has a 48.38% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).