Start Fall Gelb
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 90 (16 on the archive and 74 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 38
Defender wins (Belgian): 52
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 993 | 1049 | 42% | 2024-11-08 | Won |
| 1029 | 1108 | 39% | 2024-11-07 | Won |
| 909 | 1080 | 27% | 2024-05-17 | Lost |
| 1042 | 1002 | 56% | 2022-10-17 | Lost |
| 1002 | 1042 | 44% | 2022-10-10 | Won |
| 788 | 951 | 28% | 2021-10-06 | Lost |
| 974 | 872 | 64% | 2021-02-19 | Lost |
| 937 | 1051 | 34% | 2020-02-15 | Lost |
| 1025 | 1029 | 49% | 2019-08-10 | Won |
| 1219 | 1159 | 59% | 2016-11-24 | Won |
| 1219 | 1222 | 50% | 2016-11-23 | Won |
| 980 | 1127 | 30% | 2016-09-03 | Won |
| 931 | 1019 | 38% | 2015-12-27 | Lost |
| 1203 | 914 | 84% | 2015-10-30 | Lost |
| 912 | 1080 | 28% | 2015-06-06 | Lost |
| 1309 | 942 | 89% | 2015-04-01 | Won |
Attacking (8 wins) average ELOs: 1029.5 vs 1040.4 has a 48.43% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).