Liberation Day
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 82 (27 on the archive and 55 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 41
Defender wins (German): 41
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 985 | 52% | 2026-06-07 | | Won |
| 1182 | 1089 | 63% | 2025-09-21 | | Lost |
| 1035 | 1092 | 42% | 2025-07-12 | | Won |
| 949 | 780 | 73% | 2024-06-13 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1231 | 21% | 2024-04-18 | | Lost |
| 1064 | 1064 | 50% | 2024-04-08 | | Lost |
| 992 | 967 | 54% | 2023-07-19 | | Lost |
| 992 | 967 | 54% | 2023-07-19 | | Lost |
| 1014 | 1028 | 48% | 2023-04-05 | | Won |
| 1056 | 1045 | 52% | 2022-03-31 | | Won |
| 1033 | 1000 | 55% | 2022-01-05 | | Won |
| 994 | 1077 | 38% | 2020-11-06 | | Won |
| 1004 | 939 | 59% | 2020-07-08 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1088 | 38% | 2020-06-28 | | Won |
| 1146 | 1120 | 54% | 2019-03-30 | | Won |
| 1146 | 1120 | 54% | 2019-03-30 | | Won |
| 952 | 1000 | 43% | 2019-01-20 | | Won |
| 952 | 1000 | 43% | 2019-01-20 | | Won |
| 921 | 1103 | 26% | 2018-05-22 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1108 | 35% | 2018-02-03 | | Lost |
| 1077 | 1167 | 37% | 2015-09-05 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1064 | 41% | 2015-08-24 | | Won |
| 1219 | 1215 | 51% | 2015-08-23 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1138 | 31% | 2015-07-25 | | Lost |
| 1226 | 1000 | 79% | 2015-03-14 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1057 | 42% | 2015-01-17 | | Lost |
| 1284 | 1117 | 72% | 2015-01-15 | | Won |
Attacking (16 wins) average ELOs: 1045.9 vs 1057.8 has a 48.28% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).