Liberation Day
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 76 (24 on the archive and 52 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 37
Defender wins (German): 39
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 971 | 768 | 76% | 2024-06-13 | Won |
| 1197 | 1170 | 54% | 2024-04-18 | Lost |
| 1085 | 1132 | 43% | 2024-04-08 | Lost |
| 1054 | 941 | 66% | 2023-07-19 | Lost |
| 1054 | 941 | 66% | 2023-07-19 | Lost |
| 1082 | 1018 | 59% | 2023-04-05 | Won |
| 1040 | 1010 | 54% | 2022-03-31 | Won |
| 1075 | 1139 | 41% | 2022-01-05 | Won |
| 1008 | 989 | 53% | 2020-11-06 | Won |
| 1133 | 939 | 75% | 2020-07-08 | Won |
| 1087 | 1087 | 50% | 2020-06-28 | Won |
| 1151 | 1107 | 56% | 2019-03-30 | Won |
| 1151 | 1107 | 56% | 2019-03-30 | Won |
| 1006 | 999 | 51% | 2019-01-20 | Won |
| 1006 | 999 | 51% | 2019-01-20 | Won |
| 998 | 1086 | 38% | 2018-05-22 | Lost |
| 1094 | 1093 | 50% | 2018-02-03 | Lost |
| 1100 | 1105 | 49% | 2015-09-05 | Lost |
| 1004 | 1132 | 32% | 2015-08-24 | Won |
| 1313 | 1215 | 64% | 2015-08-23 | Lost |
| 1219 | 1264 | 44% | 2015-07-25 | Lost |
| 1223 | 1136 | 62% | 2015-03-14 | Won |
| 1070 | 1046 | 53% | 2015-01-17 | Lost |
| 1252 | 1004 | 81% | 2015-01-15 | Won |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1098.9 vs 1059.5 has a 55.65% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).