Liberation Day
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 79 (25 on the archive and 54 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 38
Defender wins (German): 41
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1119 | 1088 | 54% | 2025-09-21 | Lost |
| 1018 | 780 | 80% | 2024-06-13 | Won |
| 1207 | 1200 | 51% | 2024-04-18 | Lost |
| 1072 | 1144 | 40% | 2024-04-08 | Lost |
| 959 | 981 | 47% | 2023-07-19 | Lost |
| 959 | 981 | 47% | 2023-07-19 | Lost |
| 1081 | 1007 | 60% | 2023-04-05 | Won |
| 1055 | 1011 | 56% | 2022-03-31 | Won |
| 1024 | 1137 | 34% | 2022-01-05 | Won |
| 1007 | 1020 | 48% | 2020-11-06 | Won |
| 1073 | 939 | 68% | 2020-07-08 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2020-06-28 | Won |
| 1139 | 1123 | 52% | 2019-03-30 | Won |
| 1139 | 1123 | 52% | 2019-03-30 | Won |
| 972 | 947 | 54% | 2019-01-20 | Won |
| 972 | 947 | 54% | 2019-01-20 | Won |
| 879 | 1103 | 22% | 2018-05-22 | Lost |
| 1094 | 1108 | 48% | 2018-02-03 | Lost |
| 1111 | 1159 | 43% | 2015-09-05 | Lost |
| 991 | 1144 | 29% | 2015-08-24 | Won |
| 1252 | 1215 | 55% | 2015-08-23 | Lost |
| 1216 | 1179 | 55% | 2015-07-25 | Lost |
| 1226 | 1136 | 63% | 2015-03-14 | Won |
| 1070 | 1043 | 54% | 2015-01-17 | Lost |
| 1243 | 1045 | 76% | 2015-01-15 | Won |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1078.6 vs 1065.9 has a 51.83% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).