The Mubo Decision
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 128 (28 on the archive and 100 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Australian): 64
Defender wins (Japanese): 64
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1010 | 1184 | 27% | 2025-11-10 | Lost |
| 1090 | 950 | 69% | 2025-11-06 | Won |
| 1053 | 1053 | 50% | 2025-10-26 | Won |
| 1123 | 930 | 75% | 2023-09-14 | Lost |
| 1003 | 923 | 61% | 2021-11-18 | Won |
| 997 | 984 | 52% | 2021-11-16 | Lost |
| 997 | 984 | 52% | 2021-11-16 | Lost |
| 984 | 997 | 48% | 2021-11-09 | Won |
| 984 | 997 | 48% | 2021-11-09 | Won |
| 1162 | 997 | 72% | 2021-03-26 | Won |
| 936 | 1113 | 27% | 2021-02-08 | Lost |
| 1113 | 936 | 73% | 2021-01-25 | Won |
| 1208 | 1059 | 70% | 2020-08-21 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1082 | 47% | 2019-03-06 | Lost |
| 1027 | 1143 | 34% | 2018-08-04 | Lost |
| 924 | 897 | 54% | 2017-04-07 | Lost |
| 1122 | 991 | 68% | 2015-10-10 | Won |
| 1029 | 1100 | 40% | 2015-05-15 | Won |
| 839 | 882 | 44% | 2015-05-15 | Won |
| 1091 | 969 | 67% | 2015-05-15 | Won |
| 938 | 1253 | 14% | 2015-04-06 | Lost |
| 1071 | 1340 | 18% | 2015-02-22 | Won |
| 1031 | 1025 | 51% | 2015-02-06 | Won |
| 1193 | 1090 | 64% | 2015-01-07 | Won |
| 1297 | 1009 | 84% | 2014-11-07 | Won |
| 942 | 1029 | 38% | 2014-10-27 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1059 | 54% | 2014-10-06 | Won |
Attacking (16 wins) average ELOs: 1048.5 vs 1036.1 has a 51.78% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).