The Mubo Decision
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 131 (30 on the archive and 101 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Australian): 66
Defender wins (Japanese): 65
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1097 | 1167 | 40% | 2025-11-10 | Lost |
| 1110 | 976 | 68% | 2025-11-06 | Won |
| 993 | 985 | 51% | 2025-10-26 | Won |
| 1264 | 1006 | 82% | 2025-01-11 | Won |
| 1064 | 992 | 60% | 2023-09-14 | Lost |
| 996 | 923 | 60% | 2021-11-18 | Won |
| 1002 | 961 | 56% | 2021-11-16 | Lost |
| 1002 | 961 | 56% | 2021-11-16 | Lost |
| 961 | 1002 | 44% | 2021-11-09 | Won |
| 961 | 1002 | 44% | 2021-11-09 | Won |
| 1188 | 1002 | 74% | 2021-03-26 | Won |
| 1195 | 1131 | 59% | 2021-02-08 | Lost |
| 1131 | 1195 | 41% | 2021-01-25 | Won |
| 1209 | 1023 | 74% | 2020-08-21 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1029 | 54% | 2019-03-06 | Lost |
| 1029 | 1190 | 28% | 2018-08-04 | Lost |
| 924 | 898 | 54% | 2017-04-07 | Lost |
| 1264 | 996 | 82% | 2016-05-28 | Won |
| 1120 | 992 | 68% | 2015-10-10 | Won |
| 983 | 1134 | 30% | 2015-05-15 | Won |
| 839 | 884 | 44% | 2015-05-15 | Won |
| 1084 | 983 | 64% | 2015-05-15 | Won |
| 939 | 1206 | 18% | 2015-04-06 | Lost |
| 1061 | 1234 | 27% | 2015-02-22 | Won |
| 1019 | 1025 | 49% | 2015-02-06 | Won |
| 1192 | 1110 | 62% | 2015-01-07 | Won |
| 1299 | 984 | 86% | 2014-11-07 | Won |
| 941 | 983 | 44% | 2014-10-27 | Lost |
| 1087 | 1059 | 54% | 2014-10-06 | Won |
Attacking (18 wins) average ELOs: 1069.4 vs 1035.6 has a 54.84% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).