The Mubo Decision
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 127 (28 on the archive and 99 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Australian): 63
Defender wins (Japanese): 64
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1151 | 1045 | 65% | 2025-11-06 | Won |
| 1045 | 1045 | 50% | 2025-10-26 | Won |
| 1183 | 954 | 79% | 2023-09-14 | Lost |
| 960 | 923 | 55% | 2021-11-18 | Won |
| 954 | 1043 | 37% | 2021-11-16 | Lost |
| 954 | 1043 | 37% | 2021-11-16 | Lost |
| 1043 | 954 | 63% | 2021-11-09 | Won |
| 1043 | 954 | 63% | 2021-11-09 | Won |
| 1130 | 954 | 73% | 2021-03-26 | Won |
| 999 | 1109 | 35% | 2021-02-08 | Lost |
| 1109 | 999 | 65% | 2021-01-25 | Won |
| 1208 | 1111 | 64% | 2020-08-21 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1082 | 47% | 2019-03-06 | Lost |
| 1007 | 1140 | 32% | 2018-08-04 | Lost |
| 924 | 897 | 54% | 2017-04-07 | Lost |
| 1176 | 999 | 73% | 2016-03-27 | Lost |
| 1106 | 1004 | 64% | 2015-10-10 | Won |
| 1051 | 1055 | 49% | 2015-05-15 | Won |
| 839 | 902 | 41% | 2015-05-15 | Won |
| 1090 | 951 | 69% | 2015-05-15 | Won |
| 938 | 1256 | 14% | 2015-04-06 | Lost |
| 1100 | 1333 | 21% | 2015-02-22 | Won |
| 1028 | 1026 | 50% | 2015-02-06 | Won |
| 1190 | 1151 | 56% | 2015-01-07 | Won |
| 1301 | 1009 | 84% | 2014-11-07 | Won |
| 942 | 1051 | 35% | 2014-10-27 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1058 | 54% | 2014-10-06 | Won |
Attacking (16 wins) average ELOs: 1059.9 vs 1038.8 has a 53.03% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).